Browsing articles in "Profitly"

Apple Moves Into the Dow Jones

Apr 2, 2015   //   by Profitly   //   Market, Profitly  //  Comments Off on Apple Moves Into the Dow Jones

Apple has officially made a move into the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing AT&T. So how will Apple impact expected earnings growth for the major index?

According to FactSet, the addition of Apple will reduce expected earnings declines of DJIA in 2015.

On March 18 after the close of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average will feature the addition of a new component. Apple will be added to the index, while AT&T will be removed from the index. In terms of earnings growth, If Apple had been added in Q4, how would earnings growth for the DJIA have been impacted? What is the expected impact of Apple on expected earnings growth for the DJIA going forward?

For Q4 2014, the DJIA reported a year-over-year decline in earnings of -4.2% (utilizing the same methodology used to calculate earnings growth for the S&P 500). For Q4 2014, Apple reported EPS growth of 48%. If Apple had been added to the DJIA (and AT&T removed) during Q4 2014, the DJIA would have reported earnings growth of 1.4%.

Looking ahead to 2015, the DJIA is projected to report year-over-year declines in earnings in Q1 2015 (-15.3%), Q2 2015 (-9.5%), and Q3 2015 (-5.9%), as both Exxon Mobil and Chevron are predicted to report significant declines in earnings in each of those quarters. For Q1 2015, Q2 2015, and Q3 2015, Apple is projected to report EPS growth of 27%, 30%, and 24%, respectively. Thus, the addition of Apple will reduce the expected earnings declines for the DJIA in each of these quarters, but it will not result in expected earnings growth for any of these quarters (as it would have in Q4 2014).

However, it is interesting to note that in Q4 2015 the addition of Apple is predicted to have little impact on the estimated earnings growth rate for the DJIA. For Q4 2015, the DJIA is projected to report yearover-year earnings growth of 1.9%. Apple is predicted to report EPS growth of 3.5% for the same quarter. As a result of the lower expected EPS growth rate for Apple in the fourth quarter of this year, the addition of Apple is expected to have little impact on the projected earnings growth rate for the DJIA in Q4 2015.


How Did Industry Analysts React to Announcement of New Apple Products?

Apple was a focus company for the markets in recent weeks leading up to the unveiling of several new products and services this past Monday, including new details regarding Apple Watch, a new Mac-Book, the release of ResearchKit software, and the availability of HBO NOW on Apple products. Given these announcements, have analysts revised their outlook for Apple over the past week? Have there been any significant changes to EPS estimates, ratings, or target prices over the past week?

In terms of EPS expectations, analysts did increase EPS estimates for fiscal year 2015 and fiscal year 2016 slightly over the past week. The mean EPS estimate for FY 2015 has increased by 0.6% during this time frame (to $8.60 today from $8.55 on March 6). The mean EPS estimate for FY 2016 has increased by 0.7% over this period (to $9.24 today from $9.17 on March 6).

In terms of ratings, there was no change in the opinions of analysts over the past week. The overall number of Buy ratings (38), Hold ratings (11), and Sell ratings (2) remained unchanged.

In terms of target prices, analysts did increase their target prices slightly. The mean target price for Apple increased 1.1% during the past week (to $137.27 today from $135.75 on March 6). The current mean target price of $137.27 is 10.3% above the March 12 closing price of $124.45.

It is interesting to note that the market reaction to the announcements appeared to be mixed. The price of the stock rose 0.4% (to $127.14 on March 9 from $126.60 on March 6) on the day of the announcement. However, the price of the stock is down more than 2% overall (to $123.59 on Friday from $126.60 on March 6) during the week of March 9.


Important Lessons From Steve Jobs

Mar 25, 2015   //   by Profitly   //   Profitly  //  Comments Off on Important Lessons From Steve Jobs

The Steve Jobs guide to manipulating people & getting what you want.

We aren’t arguing that you should manipulate people, but we are saying that any lesson you can get from Steve Jobs, you should take. He is one of the smartest and most successful people in recent memory. I mean, Steve Jobs didn’t launch two of the most valuable companies in modern times by following the rules all the time. Yes, there are two. Everyone knows him for Apple but he also helped launch Pixar (do Finding Nemo or Toy Story ring a bell)?

And this may not deal directly with trading or penny stocks, but if you can better other parts of your life, your trades and ability to learn more about penny stocks will also benefit.

Job’s struggles are some of the most public, following the biography of his life that was released a couple of years ago. He faced many obstacles to get Apple, and later Pixar, off the ground. But Jobs had a unique way of crafting his own reality, a “distortion field” that could persuade people that his personal beliefs were actually facts, which is how he pushed his companies forward. Sometimes it didn’t work, but I’d say he ended up doing ok.

Image Credit: Sigalakos

Image Credit: Sigalakos

Here is a post from VentureBeat that details three main points from Steve Jobs’ career that will help you in your life as well.

Many consider Jobs a genius, but there’s no reason we could all learn a thing or two from his tactics.

Here, we teach you how to get what you want — whether that’s in your career, or in your life in general — by using examples from Jobs’ life. Most of these stories were taken from Walter Isaacson’s biography of Steve Jobs, which you can buy here.

Work hard, and others will respect you. Respect is a crucial first step to getting what you want.

By 1996, Apple had a serious issue: it was pinning its hopes on a new operating system that wasn’t and wouldn’t even solve Apple’s needs. So it looked for a partner to build a more stable operating system: in the end, it came down to two companies: a company started by Jean-Louis Gassée called “Be,” and NeXT, Jobs’ computer company that was struggling at the time.

When it came time for the two companies to pitch to Apple, Gassée acted too nonchalant, whereas Jobs didn’t hold back. Amelio described Steve’s sales pitch on the NeXT operating system as “dazzling. He praised the virtues and strengths as though he were describing a performance of Olivier as Macbeth.”

When Jobs eventually returned to Apple and he was still leading Pixar, he says he worked from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. He suffered from kidney stones. But he insisted on motivating both companies by consistently showing up and pushing people to make the best products possible, and they respected him for it.

Pitch with passion. People can be influenced by strong displays of emotion.

Pitching was a key part of Jobs’ repertoire, and it should be part of yours, too. The process of selling — yourself, or a product — is the key to getting others to buy into your ideas.

In a pitch to the trumpeter Wynton Marsalis, Jobs wanted to show off everything iTunes could do — he was recruiting musicians at the time in hopes of corralling the record labels into going along with the iTunes plan. Marsalis said Jobs talked for two hours. “He was a man possessed,” he said. “After awhile, I started looking at him and not the computer, because I was so fascinated with his passion.”

He also pitched his marketing gurus with a similar passion, to “ensure that almost every ad they produced was infused with his emotion.”

Disarm people with seduction and flattery.

Whether they’re working for you, or you’re working for them, people continually seek approval for their actions so they respond very well to affection. And if you keep giving it to them, they’ll eventually crave it from you. From Isaacson’s biography:

“Jobs could seduce and charm people at will, and he liked to do so. People such as (former Apple CEOs) Amelio and Sculley allowed themselves to believe that because Jobs was charming them, it meant that he liked and respected them. It was an impression that he sometimes fostered by dishing out insincere flattery to those hungry for it. But Jobs could be charming to people he hated just as easily as he could be insulting to people he liked.”

Superman Creates Five Millionaires

Mar 19, 2015   //   by Profitly   //   News, Profitly  //  Comments Off on Superman Creates Five Millionaires

A huge congrats to Superman and his students! In just one year, his strategy has helped five people become millionaires (or soon to be)!! Here is a post from his blog detailing his strategy and highlighting the success of these five people.

My strategy has 3 different types of trades with the chief goal being to MAXIMIZE gains and MINIMIZE losses. I have parameters for each type of trade that teach when to buy and sell. I do not have to be correct 100% of the time I just have to be disciplined and that is what I teach in my Stock Trading Rules. Using this strategy that I now teach, for over 10 years I was able to greatly supplement my income while still excelling at my full time job and now I am able to be my own boss and a self-made millionaire!!!

And while becoming a millionaire and achieving financial independence is great, what motivates me to teach other traders are two things.

1) I want to prevent people from making all the painful mistakes I made and share in the successes from 18 years of trading. While I have had great success along the way and have for 15 years always found some of the best momentum movers before they happen, I also made many heartbreaking and painful mistakes along the way. I devised my entire strategy of rules and discipline from my failures as well as my successes. I want to prevent traders from blowing up their accounts and losing all of their money, which I did MANY times growing up as a trader. Not many people will admit it, but I do and it was DEVASTATING. My rules and strategy can save traders years of painful hard knock lessons and teach them to compound and build wealth at amazing returns while preserving capital.

2) I want to make as many people financially independent as I can !!! I get more satisfaction from seeing my students become financially independent than I do myself (Don’t get me wrong being your own boss is AMAZING). I am driven to use my strategy to help as many people as I can because I KNOW and BELIEVE it works and have proof as you will see in this blog. Whatever financial independence means for you , being your own boss, becoming debt free, being able to help loved ones and friends, that car you want, owning your own house free and clear…….I want to help you get there !!! The greatest satisfaction in all of this is when I get messages from people that tell me my strategy has helped change their financial life and they are now financially independent !!!

But make no mistake, learning the stock market takes hard work. I do not want the lazy, the get rich quick with no effort dreamers, the weak charactered that cringe when the going gets challenging, and the people that just want stock picks and are looking to be told what to do.

I want those that want to be leaders !! They want to learn to eventually find their own stock picks and right away be able to make their own decisions when to buy and sell, maximize gains and minimize losses, and compound wealth based on my PROVEN strategy. Remember I nor anyone is 100% accurate nor do I claim to be. I claim to be able to compound wealth by maximizing the trades that work (the majority do) and minimizing the trades that do not (not every trade will work nor does it).

In One Year My Strategy Has Influenced These Five People Into Soon To Be Millionaires !!! What characteristics do they all shares? Hard working, self-motivated, independent thinkers, view mistakes as learning opportunities, thick skinned and most of all they are NOT people who are just there to blindly follow my alerts as I trade my own money.
Sure many times they make bank off my educational buy and sell alerts as I manage my own money. But when they see me make a trade they use what they have learned from my strategy to evaluate if my idea is for them and if so when to buy and sell. They never chase alerts from ANYONE. Many times they are finding their OWN trading ideas and incorporating my research style, trade parameters, and rules into their own personal strategies and strengths to build wealth that is unheard of for a person like me that worked since I was 13 and struggled with bills and debt for YEARS!!!
In One Year My Strategy Has Influenced These Five People Into Soon To Be Millionaires !!!

1) @Triforcetrader on Twitter. He has made over $600,000 VERIFIED in 2014. Matt took my bootcamp in the first quarter of 2014. He is now also an important, value added moderator in my chat room.


2) @IncredibleTrade on Twitter. He has made over $450,000 VERIFIED. Mr I. or IT as we like to call him for short in my chat room, has been following me on twitter since 2009 and has been a member of my service since I started it in November 2012. He is now also an important, value added moderator in my chat room.


3) @DrMatt30 on Twitter. He has made over $376,547 VERIFIED in 2014. Matt took my bootcamp in the first quarter of 2014. He is now also an important, value added moderator in my chat room.


4) @TraderX76 on Twitter. He has made over $259,106 VERIFIED in 2014. Ryan has been with my service for a little over a year.


5) @GETNHUGE on Twitter. He has made over $119,437 VERIFIED in 2014. David has been with my service for a little over a year. A blog post about him is on the way soon !!!


There are COUNTLESS other students who have made hundreds and tens of thousands that I will be highlighting soon !!!

Weekly Roundup March 9-13

Mar 17, 2015   //   by Profitly   //   Best Trades, Profitly  //  Comments Off on Weekly Roundup March 9-13

It was another down week for the major indices, but our gurus still found ways to make profitable trades. Tim, Superman, and the other big gurus are are all still solidly in the green for the year as well. Remember that since they don’t just trade basic index funds, they can make money in any environment. They are constantly teaching this strategy to their students too.

Here’s an overall market recap from FactSet and our gurus biggest trades below:

Dow -0.60%, S&P -0.86%, Nasdaq -1.13%, Russell 2000 +1.20%.

U.S. equities were lower this week as the S&P 500 suffered its third straight decline. The big macro story continued to revolve around the policy divergence theme with the start of the ECB’s QE program. This dynamic drove a further rally in Eurozone stocks and bonds, but seemed to be an overhang on U.S. equity sentiment as another bout of dollar strength exacerbated intertwined concerns surrounding earnings headwinds and valuation (a strong dollar hurts earnings for companies with a large percentage of sales overseas).

However, ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, there was little spillover effect on the Fed liftoff debate from the dollar rally, another softer-than-expected retail sales report and a renewed wave of selling pressure on oil. While there were few high-profile earnings reports, corporate newsflow drove some of the more notable price action.

Additional M&A headlines surrounding pharma/biotech helped the healthcare sector put in the best performance this week. The banking group fared well on the back of the capital return announcements that followed the second phase of the Fed’s stress test results. Intel’s preannouncement contributed to the already negative sentiment surrounding the PC space, helping drive the underperformance in tech. The energy sector put in the worst performance this week (suffering its biggest pullback since early January) as oil fell nearly 10% to a six-week low of $44.84 a barrel. Some people are now saying that we haven’t seen the bottom in oil. Please be careful when/if trading it. Oil has been called the “widow maker” for a reason.

Sector Performance (vs S&P 500):

Outperformers: Healthcare +0.46%, Financials +0.40%, Utilities +0.15%, Consumer Disc. -0.34%, Telecom -0.58%, Industrials -0.73%.

Underperformers: Energy -2.82%, Tech -2.39%, Materials -1.29%, Consumer Spls. -1.27%.

The Dow Jones is down -.4% year to date, the S&P 500 -.27%, and the Nasdaq is the only winner up 2.87%.

As you can see, there are some big events going on this week (Fed decision in the middle of the week), so be sure to join the chatroom and keep an eye on the markets! If you don’t you could be missing out on some major profits. Volatility can lead to some really big trades.

Now, let’s start out with Tim, who had a lot of great trades this past week despite how busy it was for him (he was on Fox Business TV with Marria Bartiromo and his new student Former NFL Player Plaxico Burress on Tuesday).

And lastly, take a look at some of our previous roundups, we hope you guys enjoy these!

January 5-January 9

January 12-January 16

January 19-January 23

January 26-January 30

February 2-February 6

February 9-February 13

February 16-February 20

February 23-February 27

March 2-March 6

St. Patrick’s Day Trading Ideas

Mar 13, 2015   //   by Profitly   //   Profitly  //  Comments Off on St. Patrick’s Day Trading Ideas

We are quickly approaching the St. Patrick’s Day holiday, and we wanted to take some time to give you some trading ideas leading up to the event. From beer to chicken wings, we’ve got you covered. A lot of people wouldn’t really thing about getting new ideas for this holiday in particular, since it’s not considered as big of a deal as Thanksgiving or Christmas where analysts/traders/investors page through reports and outlooks for the retail shopping season.

But you may be surprised to learn just what kind of opportunities this Irish celebration presents.

Here are some ideas that Forbes originally generated:

The Boston Beer Company (NYSE: SAM) – While some beer companies have seen a downturn in their share prices in the current economic climate, craft beers have generally been the best performers in the sector. In fact, the Boston Beer Company has seen almost non-stop growth over the previous twelve months and has seen its share price increase by nearly 25% in the past 3 months. The company has seen a large amount of short interest lately, so perhaps a short squeeze could be in store.

Diageo (NYSE: DEO) – Diageo also cashes in on this holiday thanks mainly to its association with alcohol. The company, which owns many adult beverage brands including Guinness (the national beer of Ireland) has historically seen gains of up to 2.05% in the days leading up to and including St. Patrick’s Day. It’s struggled a bit lately, so it will be interesting to see if shares get a boost.

Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) – If alcohol does not interest you, perhaps soda will. Shares generally trade in line with the S&P 500, but have trailed lately and may simply need the holiday to get a boost. They also hiked their dividend by 8% to 33 cents from 30.5 cents recently, and appointed its new marketing chief as an executive vice president.

Tyson Foods (NYSE: TSN) – Tyson, one of America’s largest food companies, generally sees small increases in its shares in the days leading up to this holiday, thanks mainly to their corned beef products. The Board of Directors of Tyson Foods (meeting on January 29) declared the quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share on Class A common stock and $0.09 per share on Class B common stock, payable on June 15, 2015. Additionally, Tyson may be of interest to those looking for a slightly longer-term investment as their shares might see yet another increase as Easter approaches. The stock has been trailing the S&P 500 lately.

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) – With the launch of the highly anticipated Apple watch quickly approaching, it should come as no surprise that Apple made our list. While it is true the launch of the watch might not impact Apple shares quite as much as other products like the iPhone, consumers and investors have been anxiously awaiting the launch of Apple’s latest product. According to the Wall Street Journal, Apple has pre-ordered 5 million to 6 million units of Apple Watch. That’s similar to the number of units the company ordered for the iPad in 2010. According to The Motley Fool, The iPad was launched at the beginning of April and sold 7.46 million units in its first six months; it sold an additional 7.33 million units in the holiday quarter of that year.


Weekly Roundup March 2-6

Mar 11, 2015   //   by Profitly   //   Profitly, Profitly Weekly  //  Comments Off on Weekly Roundup March 2-6

It was a full week of trading and Wall Street ended lower.

The Dow was off -1.52%, S&P -1.58%, Nasdaq -0.73%, and Russell 2000 -1.29%.

Here is an overview of the week via FactSet:

US equities finished lower, with a big chunk of the pullback coming on Friday, when a larger-than-expected increase in February payrolls underpinned expectations for a mid-2015 liftoff. In terms of perceived overhangs outside of the policy dynamic, there continued to be some focus on stretched valuations in combination with negative earnings revisions. While the global policy divergence theme remained in the headlines throughout the week, it continued to have a much bigger impact on Europe. In addition there was little overall direction for stocks from a fairly busy week of macro and geopolitical newsflow. There did not seem to be anything particularly incremental in this week’s corporate newsflow. The pharma/biotech M&A theme continued, retail takeaways were fairly company specific, commodity exposure remained a big headwind, all firms passed the Fed’s stress tests as expected and both aggressive buyback activity and better capex trends received some attention in the press. Sector performance for the week was largely driven by the policy influences (rates and FX) in play on Friday. Defensive sectors like utilities, telecom and consumer staples underperformed. Financials held up the best, but still finished lower.

Payrolls underpin mid-2015 liftoff expectations:

The most widely anticipated event of the week, the February employment report, was the big headwind for stocks (and bonds). Nonfarm payrolls rose 295K last month, ahead of consensus expectations of 235-240K. This put the three-month average at 288K. Gains were broad-based and there were no signs of a weather-related drag as both construction and leisure and hospitality posted solid gains and the workweek was unchanged for a fifth straight month. In addition, the unemployment rate fell to 5.5% from 5.7%, below the 5.6% consensus. While lower participation played a role, JPMorgan noted that broader measures of labor underutilization showed even greater improvement. The big disappointment from the report was the 0.1% m/m increase in average hourly earnings that left the y/y rate up just 2.0%. The Street was looking for a 0.2% gain after an outsized 0.5% increase in January. While earnings were widely expected to be the more important input for the liftoff timing debate, the overall momentum in the labor market recovery reinforced the likelihood that the Fed will change its forward guidance next month and provided further support for a mid-2015 tightening (and continued to leave the door open for a move in June).

Sector Performance (vs S&P 500):

Outperformers: Financials -0.55%, Consumer Disc. -0.79%, Healthcare -1.15%, Tech -1.43%.

Underperformers: Utilities -4.16%, Energy -2.92%, Telecom -2.80%, Consumer Spls. -2.61%, Materials -2.02%, Industrials -1.85%.
So let’s talk about Superman first. He didn’t have very many trades but here is a notable one:

Now we’ll take a look at some notable trades from Tim (who had a lot of smaller trades but we’re only going to recap the larger ones):

And lastly, take a look at some of our previous roundups, we hope you guys enjoy these!

January 5-January 9

January 12-January 16

January 19-January 23

January 26-January 30

February 2-February 6

February 9-February 13

February 16-February 20

February 23-February 27

Weekly Roundup February 23-27

Mar 4, 2015   //   by Profitly   //   Profitly, Profitly Weekly  //  Comments Off on Weekly Roundup February 23-27

It is a busy week on Wall Street! But first, lets look at how our traders did last week (which was also busy in terms of things like economic data and earnings).

First we’ll talk about Tim, who had a number of trades around the $1-2K mark.

Next let’s talk about Superman:

Check out this first trade…six figures in one shot! That’s more than a lot of people make in an entire year…

And now for a look at what’s ahead. We’ve already had a slew of data on Monday:

Snapshot (via FactSet):

Economic news flow moves to the forefront in the week ahead, as a robust calendar includes the ISM manufacturing index to begin the week, factory orders, and Friday’s release of the February employment data in the US. Overseas the focus will be on February manufacturing surveys, along with the ECB meeting on Thursday and Germany’s industrial production data on Friday. The corporate calendar sees a shift in focus from fourth quarter earnings to a lineup heavy with analyst meetings and a batch of sell-side conferences that could provide inventors insight into first quarter trends – while US auto sales and chain store reports round out the schedule.

Monday 2-Mar:

Markit Manufacturing PMI

The global manufacturing sector expanded for the twenty-seventh consecutive month in February. The rate of output growth accelerated to a six-month high, as companies scaled up production to meet rising levels of new work and new export orders. The J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMITM – a composite index1 produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – rose to 52.0 in February, from 51.7 in January.

Personal Spending 

U.S. consumer spending fell for a second straight month in January, likely as lower gasoline prices continued to weigh on receipts at service stations. The Commerce Department said on Monday consumer spending slipped 0.2 percent after falling 0.3 percent in December.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, dipping 0.1 percent in January. When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending increased 0.3 percent after December’s 0.1 percent dip.

Core PCE Index

Excluding food and energy, the so-called core PCE price index increased 1.3 percent in the 12 months through January.

ISM Manufacturing

Manufacturing expanded in February at the weakest pace in a year, limited by weaker growth abroad and a work slowdown at West Coast ports.

The Institute for Supply Management’s index dropped to 52.9, the lowest since January 2014, from 53.5 a month earlier, the Tempe, Arizona-based group’s report showed Monday. Readings above 50 indicate growth and the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists was 53.

Not much outside of earnings and a few speeches on Tuesday, so we’ll skip over that.

Wednesday 4-Mar:

Beige Book

ADP Employment

non-Manufacturing PMI

Thursday 5-Mar:


Non-farm productivity

Factory Orders

Friday 6-Mar:

Non-farm payrolls (the big jobs number!)

Average hourly earnings

Trade Balance

And lastly, take a look at some of our previous roundups, we hope you guys enjoy these!

January 5-January 9

January 12-January 16

January 19-January 23

January 26-January 30

February 2-February 6

February 9-February 13

Weekly Roundup February 16-20

Mar 4, 2015   //   by Profitly   //   Profitly, Profitly Weekly  //  Comments Off on Weekly Roundup February 16-20

The shortened trading week was a rather subdued one in the markets. The Dow ended +0.67%, S&P +0.63%, Nasdaq +1.27%, Russell 2000 +0.71%. There weren’t many big moves along the way like we’ve seen in previous weeks either. Here is a quick overview via FactSet:

Sector Performance (vs S&P 500):

Outperformers: Healthcare +1.93%, Industrials +1.59%, Utilities +1.19%, Tech +1.18%, Materials +0.98%, Consumer Disc. +0.77%

Underperformers: Energy (2.38%), Telecom (1.36%), Financials +0.10%, Consumer Spls. +0.11%

The S&P 500 posted its third straight weekly gain, ending 6.5% above its recent low on 2-Feb. Most of the higher-profile stories had relatively little influence on the broader market. The drama surrounding Greece continued to dominate the headlines despite the limited directional takeaways for risk assets. However, a deal between Athens and the Eurozone did boost US stocks on Friday. The minutes from the January FOMC meeting had a slightly dovish tilt that underpinned Treasuries on Wednesday, though there did not seem to be any meaningful shift in policy normalization sentiment. While Wal-Mart’s decision to boost pay for a third of its workforce received a lot of attention, there was some debate about its potential to trigger broader wage increases.

Greece, Eurozone reach a deal:

Stocks got a lift on Friday after Athens secured a four-month extension of its loan agreement with the Eurogroup. This was less than the six months it had sought. In addition, Greece had to commit to a successful completion of the current bailout review and pledge not to roll back any reform measures that could have a negative impact on its finances or economic recovery. It also pledged to fully honor its existing debt obligations. Athens will have to continue to run a primary budget surplus, though the statement seemed to imply that targets could be lowered. While €10.9B of Eurozone funds for the recapitalization of Greek banks will still be available, the money will be held by the Eurozone bailout fund (rather than the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund as is now the case) and dispersed only at the request of the ECB. In terms of the next steps, there is still a bit of uncertainty as Greece has to submit a list of reforms on Monday that it plans to implement over the remainder of the rescue period. Provided that Greece’s creditors are satisfied with the measures, the extension will be ratified at another Eurogroup meeting on Tuesday. After that, where necessary, national parliaments will begin their approval process.

Slightly dovish tilt to January FOMC minutes:

There was a slightly dovish tilt to the January FOMC minutes with two particular areas of focus. One was that “many participants” believed the balance of risks associated with the timing of the beginning of policy normalization implied that the fed funds rate should be kept at its effective lower bound “for a longer time”. The other was that “many participants” also highlighted concerns that dropping the “patient” forward guidance language in the statement could risk shifting market expectations for initial policy firming to too narrow a range of dates.

Earnings calendar drives notable movers:

The earnings calendar was not a directional driver for the broader market as aggregate takeaways have already been hashed out, though it did trigger some of the more notable single-stock price action. Despite the better comp/traffic trends and tailwind from lower gas prices, WMT (1.8%) underperformed with the drag on guidance from its new compensation structure and e-commerce investments. JWN +2.9% fared better as favorable top-line trends offset concerns about its investment cycle. PCLN +10.2% was one of the big gainers on solid bookings growth, with the International segment a particular bright spot given concerns about a potential deceleration. RevPAR and unit growth guidance upside helped MAR +4.5%. Better comps at Qdoba and Jack in the Box (JITB) and above-consensus guidance boosted JACK +12.5%. INTU +7.2% was underpinned by a better-than-feared start to the tax season and momentum in the Small Business segment (QBO). FOSL (13.5%) sold off sharply on concerns about negative NA trends and the upcoming launch of the Apple Watch. EOG (6.3%) was hit by lower-than-expected Q4 production and 2015 production guidance that was down at the midpoint compared to sell-side expectations for a LSD gain. The soft performance in the Mobile/Wireless segment weighed on MRVL (1.8%).

Moving on to our gurus,

Tim and Superman had some great trades this week. First we’ll start with Sykes.

Then we have Superman! He didn’t have as many trades this week, but sometimes it’s best not to trade than to force something. (Forcing trades is one of our gurus big “no-go’s” since that often leads to losses).

Weekly Roundup February 9-13

Feb 24, 2015   //   by Profitly   //   Profitly, Profitly Weekly  //  Comments Off on Weekly Roundup February 9-13

Time for the weekly roundup. Here are Tim’s biggest winning and losing trades of the week:

Then Superman had one whopper of a trade to put him back over the $500,000 in profits for the year!

And here is a broad market overview:

Sector Performance (vs S&P 500) via FactSet:

Outperformers: Tech +4.27%, Materials +3.01%, Consumer Disc. +2.63%, Energy +2.62%

Underperformers: Utilities (3.32%), Telecom +0.07%, Consumer Spls. +0.96%, Financials +1.20%, Healthcare +1.36%, Industrials +1.58%

US equities finished higher for a second straight week with the S&P 500 ending at a record high. Why? Some of the credit went to heightened expectations for a deal between Greece and Europe. The geopolitical backdrop was also cited as supportive with the ceasefire agreement for eastern Ukraine. However, neither of these dynamics had ever really presented a headwind for stocks and there continued to be a number of issues in both cases that still needed to be sorted out. This left some of the focus on thoughts that the market has simply been working off the negative sentiment that accrued over the better part of January despite a relatively unchanged macro narrative.

This week saw a further bounce in oil, though broader market spillover seemed more muted. While the stronger January employment report out last Friday kept a mid-2015 liftoff in focus, there was also discussion about how a lower natural rate of unemployment could slow the policy normalization process. The market largely ignored disappointing retail sales and consumer confidence data this week, while there was some positive sentiment surrounding the better growth data out of Germany. Aggregate takeaways from another busy week on the earnings calendar were limited. Tech was the big gainer this week, while utilities was the only sector to finish lower for a second straight week.

Sentiment improves:

According to the latest Investors Intelligence survey, the bullish camp stood at 52.5% for the week of 10-Feb, up from 49% in the prior week. In addition, the bears slipped to 15.2% from 16.3% over the past two weeks, while just before that, they were at a six-month high.

Oil bounce continues:

The oil bounce continued this week. After rallying 9.1% last week, Brent crude gained more than 6% to settle at $61.52 a barrel. WTI ended the week 2.1% higher at $52.78 a barrel after jumping 7.2% in the prior week. While analysts remained skeptical about the read-throughs for production, rig count data and capex cuts remained the widely cited tailwinds. On Friday, Baker Hughes reported that the US oil rig count fell by 84 this week to 1,056, down 34% from the October 2014 peak and the lowest level since August 2011. A Reuters article also pointed out that OPEC’s strategy seems to be working as the three main monthly reports out this week on average raised their demand outlook for OPEC crude in 2015. However, this week also saw another batch of cautious sell-side commentary on concerns that the market is still oversupplied and inventories are likely to build further. Citi even noted that WTI could briefly trade as low as $20 a barrel.

Tech leads market higher:

Tech was the best performing sector this week. Much of the focus was on the momentum in AAPL +6.9%. There was no one specific factor for the strength, though comments from CEO Tim Cook at the Goldman Sachs Tech & Internet conference were well received, with some focus on capital returns. In addition, following presentations from a number of hardware companies, Goldman pointed out that continued stability in IT spending seemed to be a common thread, with enterprise demand described as sturdy.

Will Bulls Reign In 2015?

Feb 19, 2015   //   by Profitly   //   Market, Profitly, Risks  //  Comments Off on Will Bulls Reign In 2015?

People will often ask our gurus what their general outlook for the market is the following year and 2015 is no different. What we want everyone to know is that for us, it doesn’t matter if the market goes up or down. We train our students to know how to trade in any market. There will always be weeks where there are more plays then others, but the general direction of the market does not have a large impact on their ability to make money. They know how to short stocks and buy stocks by just learning technical patterns and the impact of various news stories.

If you are still curious how the market s going to do in the following year though, here is a post form Business Insider that will give you some insight. Please do keep in mind that making these types of predictions is like rolling a dice. New events can quickly pop up throughout the year and turn these estimates on their heads.

Finally, A Top Wall Street Strategist Goes Contrarian And Predicts US Stocks Will Fall In 2015

Until now, we couldn’t find a single major Wall Street strategist that was predicting US stocks would fall in 2015, and neither could Barron’s:


The lowest level on Barron’s list was 2100 by Jonathan Glionna of Barclays. Keep in mind that the S&P 500 closed on December 31, 2014, at 2,058.90, so these are all higher than that level.

Of the strategists followed by Business Insider, 2100 was also the lowest, with the most bearish coming from Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse, and Barclays.

But Societe Generale has come out with a contrarian view: US stocks are going to slide in 2015.

“Since 1875, we have never seen the S&P rise for seven calendar years in a row, so an eighth year would seem highly unlikely,” Societe Generale’s Roland Kaloyan said in a Dec. 17 note to clients. “We assume that the S&P 500 will finish the year slightly down as the strengthening of the US dollar and the new tightening cycle offset the strong US GDP growth already priced-in at the start of the year.”

@finansakrobat tweeted this map summarizing the firms outlook for global stocks in 2015.

The red map of the US with “S&P 500: -1%” really sticks out.


Via Societe Generale


However, Kaloyan is feeling positive about other countries in Asia and Europe.

The firm is expecting stocks soaring in Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan, and several European countries including Spain.