New App Update

Aug 27, 2014   //   by Profitly   //   Announcements, Features, Profitly  //  No Comments

The best finance app just got better. You can now watch your DVDs on the go. Learn from the best anywhere!

Here is a screenshot of what your DVD library should look like:

Watch DVD

Profit.ly Gurus Are Crushing Financial Professionals

Aug 25, 2014   //   by Profitly   //   Profitly  //  No Comments

Last week we showed you how much better our gurus were doing as opposed to the general markets. Now, we’re here to tell you that not only are they crushing the markets, they’re killing the competition too.

According to a post by Josh Brown of the Reformed Broker, only a quarter of funds are beating the market this year.

The Equity and Quant Strategy group at Bank of America Merrill Lynch updates us on the latest data about active manager performance. Year-to-date, it’s been very difficult for U.S. stock pickers. When benchmarked against the Russell 1000 large cap index, a shockingly small number of funds are above the bogey…

“Year to date, 25% of managers beat the

benchmark. Core managers did best, with

27% beating the benchmark. Value

manager had an 11% hit rate. 20% of

Growth managers beat the benchmark.”

Screen-Shot-2014-08-09-at-9.54.58-AM

For some perspective, 37% of managers have been able to beat the market over the last 12 months, so 25% is a really bad showing.

Savita Subramanian & Co do note that July was a good period for active managers, however, as 53% of managers got above their benchmark for the month. Is this the start of something new or just an anomaly during a very tough year?

Brown got this information via a note from Bank of America Merrill Lynch issued on August 8th 2014.

As I said earlier, we told you how awful the general market was doing this year in a post last week. We should note that the stock market did end the week on a high note, with the Dow rising 185 points, but the Dow is still down on the year and people following Superman are still far better off than the general traders. Superman just passed the million dollar mark in profits Year-To-Date! Think he can hit $1.25M in profits by the time he speaks at Tim’s conference in Vegas?

Screen Shot 2014-08-12 at 4.11.21 PM

Time will tell, but regardless, this guy is on fire no matter which way the market goes. A couple of weeks ago he had a $150k+ profit and last week he had several trades that he closed with profits in the 5 figures! To get a percentage placed on this, let’s estimate that he has a portfolio of roughly $2.5 million (since he has $2.38 million in all time profits on Profitly), that would be a return of roughly 40% year-to-date! That’s compared to a 4.5% return for the S&P500 and returns of roughly 4.7% for the average fund manager! Even if we are low balling the amount of money in his portfolio and cut the percentage return in half, you’re still beating the average return by 15%. I don’t know about you guys, but I would take Superman’s returns in a heart beat, especially since I could trade from anywhere in the world and wouldn’t have to sit in an office cubicle.

 

Weekly Roundup August 11-15

Aug 20, 2014   //   by Profitly   //   Profitly, Profitly Weekly  //  Comments Off

Time for another weekly roundup! It may be closing in on the end of summer when most traders are taking off since the stock market is pretty slow, but that doesn’t mean our gurus and their students aren’t profiting!

First we have Tim, who is still trading even though he is overseas on “vacation.” That’s the beauty of being able to trade from anywhere!

$1,919 profit on PZZI. Long Stock by timothysykes

Entry comments: Buying this former runner casual restaurant chain on the breakout above long-term resistance at $8, only resistance left is at $9 then it’s a big time breakout, with recent big winners like CMG/LOCO everyone is looking for the next big restaurant stock, judging by this price action, this could be it, goal is to sell at $9ish and maybe hold if it can breakout past that, already have http://tim.ly/timlong long-term position. Exit comments: Got a nice little morning spike, nothing huge, but it wipes away my LIVE loss so I’m basically breakeven today, still holding small long-term position on PZZI given the strong chart breakout.

Screen Shot 2014-08-16 at 8.06.51 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-16 at 8.06.55 AM

$1,890 profit on AMOT. Long Stock by timothysykes

Entry comments: Buying this earnings winner into the market close, nice gradual uptrend all day, breaking above multi-year support in the low 14s, I’d love to see it retest today’s highs in the low 15s and possibly even test or breakout past highs of 16. Exit comments: No big big morning spike like I wanted, taking decent profits, staying disciplined and getting out, playing it safe, NEXT! Congrats to all overnight longs!

Screen Shot 2014-08-16 at 8.07.57 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-16 at 8.08.02 AM

$1,183 loss on LIVE. Long Stock by timothysykes

Entry comments: Dip buying this earnings winner/former spiker, goal is to sell in the high 4s or low 5s today or tomorrow morning, this can REALLY spike in the morning, as it proved today, so shorts should respect this earnings-based move, hopefully this sketchy company can issues an overnight PR too as they like to do when they’re in short squeeze mode, I’m buying this 75 cents/share off its day highs so not much risk if I’m wrong. Exit comments: No overnight news, no morning spike/gap up so I’m playing it safe…whether or not I have a small gain or loss on trades like this if there is news/spiking it’s such a home run, I’ll do this again and again.

Screen Shot 2014-08-16 at 8.08.10 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-16 at 8.08.15 AM

 

Then we have InvestorsLive.

$7,427 profit on TKMR. Short Stock by InvestorsLive

Screen Shot 2014-08-16 at 8.15.02 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-16 at 8.15.08 AM

$3,664 profit on EXAS. Short Stock by InvestorsLive

Screen Shot 2014-08-16 at 8.15.47 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-16 at 8.15.51 AM

$3,283 loss on KMI. Short Stock by InvestorsLive

Screen Shot 2014-08-16 at 8.16.10 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-16 at 8.16.14 AM

$11,241 loss on CSIQ. Short Stock by InvestorsLive

Screen Shot 2014-08-16 at 8.16.33 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-16 at 8.16.38 AM

 

And last but certainly not least, we have SuperMan.

$4,240 profit on LIVE. Long Stock by super_trades

Entry comments: SWING / TRADE – revs up nicely in 10q….. personal stop loss 4 area and personal target 4.75-5 plus if it works. Exit comments: SUPER TRADE !!!! may go higher and will watch but super !!

Screen Shot 2014-08-16 at 8.18.22 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-16 at 8.18.26 AM

$16,349 profit on GGG. Long Stock by super_trades

Entry comments: TICKER is GGG.V this is a Canadian stock new listing …. 3d graphene …..SWING personal stop loss .35-.38 and personal target .75-1 plus if it works. Exit comments: SUPER TRADE !! May go higher will keep on watch.

Screen Shot 2014-08-16 at 8.30.55 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-16 at 8.30.59 AM

$1,650 loss on MGPI. Long Stock by super_trades

Entry comments: CHART – watch list winner kind of late here but personal stop loss 4ema and personal target 10-11 plus if it works. Exit comments: may still work and will keep watch but stalled.

Screen Shot 2014-08-16 at 8.17.56 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-16 at 8.18.01 AM

March 30-April 4

April 7-April 11

April 14-April 18

April 21-April 25

April 28-May 2

May 5-May 9

May 12-May 16

May 19-May 23

May 27-May 30

June 2-June 6

June 9-June 13

June 16-June 20

June 23-June 27

June 30-July 3

July 7-July 11

July 14-July18

August 4-August 8

The 40 Most Important Charts Right Now

Aug 18, 2014   //   by Profitly   //   Market, Profitly  //  Comments Off

Here at Profit.ly, we LOVE charts! There is so much you can learn just from a simple picture. Our guru’s are often predicting a stocks next move based on what they are seeing in certain charts. If you are one of their students, you will know that they often look at charts in their video lessons, webinars, and watch lists. Essentially: CHARTS ARE IMPORTANT! It is hard to even imagine finance and trading without them. That’s why, when I found the following article on Business Insider, I had to share it!

What’s the article, you ask? It’s called “Wall Street’s Brightest Minds Reveal The Most Important Charts In The World.”
Business Insider’s Myles Udland asked dozens of his favorite analysts, economists, strategists, and portfolio managers on Wall Street and around the world to send him their most important charts. The article contains that fascinating composition.
Some themes that arise are continued questions about the housing and credit markets in China, volatility — or the lack thereof — in global markets, and how we can get a sense of what happens when the Fed makes its next move. Here are the charts as well as the person that sent it in: Let us know if you have any that you think we are missing! These guys covered everything from the Fed to Nigeria!

1.Jeff Gundlach, DoubleLine

1

2.Emad Mostaque, strategist

2

3.Aswath Damodaran, Stern School of Business at NYU

3

4.Michael Widmer, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

4

5.Joshua M. Brown and Michael Batnick, Ritholtz Wealth Management

5

6.Jesse Livermore, Philosophical Economics

6

7.Michael McDonough, Bloomberg LP

7

8.Tobias Levkovich, Citi Research

8

9.Gary Shilling, economist

9

10.Jens Nordvig, Nomura

10

11.Tim Quinlan, Wells Fargo

11

12.Megan Greene, Maverick Intelligence

12

13.David Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff

13

14.Jonathan Krinsky, MKM Partners

14

15.Sean Darby, Jefferies

15

16.Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley

16

17.Michelle Meyer, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

17

18.Todd Colvin, R.J. O’Brien

19

19.Lars Christensen, Danske Bank

20

20.Steven Englander, Citigroup

21

21.Saeed Amen, The Thalesians

22

22.Gerard Minack, Minack Advisors

23

23.John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer & Co.

24

24.Zach Pandl, Columbia Management

25

25.Vladimir Miklashevsky, Danske Bank

26

26.Dave Lutz, JonesTrading

27

27.Hedy Mansour, Langdon P. Cook Government Securities

28

28.Uldis Zelmenis, BTA Insurance Co.

29

29.Drew Matus, UBS

30

30.Stuart Culverhouse, Exotix Partners

31

31.Ruslan Bikbov, Merrill Lynch

32

32.George Goncalves, Nomura

33

33.David Woo, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

34

34.Rick Harrell, Loomis, Sayles & Co.

35

35.George Magnus, UBS

36

36.Maury Harris, UBS

37

37.Boris Rjavinski, UBS

38

38.Radoslaw Bodys, PKO BP

39

39.Francisco Blacn, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research

40

40.Nicholas Spiro, Spiro Sovereign Strategy

41

To see the second half of the list, visit Business Insider.

Weekly Roundup August 4-8

Aug 11, 2014   //   by Profitly   //   Profitly, Profitly Weekly  //  Comments Off

Time for our next weekly roundup! Superman in particular had a stellar week! Check out the best trades from our gurus below.

First is InvestorsLive.

$4,670 profit on MBLY.

Screen Shot 2014-08-09 at 10.14.16 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-09 at 10.14.22 AM

$3,749 profit on MBLY.

Screen Shot 2014-08-09 at 10.14.41 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-09 at 10.14.45 AM

$2,222 profit on CZR.

Screen Shot 2014-08-09 at 10.15.03 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-09 at 10.15.07 AM

$1,768 loss on LOCO.

Screen Shot 2014-08-09 at 10.15.28 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-09 at 10.15.32 AM

Then we have Superman.

$16,650 profit on TOUR.

Entry comments: CHART – AS OUTLINED IN SUEPR PRO video got pullback towards 4ema which would be personal stop loss and personal target 23-25 plus before earnings if it works……Exit comments: SUPER TRADE will watch chart for re-entry.

Screen Shot 2014-08-09 at 10.19.23 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-09 at 10.19.27 AM

$5,730 profit on HGSH.

Entry comments: earnings winner bottom of chart SWING / TRADE personal stop low 2′s and personal target 3.3 plus if it works. Exit comments: SUPER TRADE – may go higher but hit target range and perfect 6k trade.

Screen Shot 2014-08-09 at 10.19.43 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-09 at 10.19.47 AM

$21,787 profit on SSYS.

Entry comments: they expire 1 week after earnings …looking for move into earnings. Exit comments: CLOSED REMAINING PUTS AT 9 FROM 3 ENTRY!!!!!$$$$$$ #SUPERTRADE #OHMY.

Screen Shot 2014-08-09 at 10.20.03 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-09 at 10.20.06 AM

$14,588 profit on LIME.

Entry comments: DO NOT CHASE – TRADE – Low float with big contract news after hours…personal stop low 3′s and personal target 4.5-5 plus if it works. Exit comments: SUPER trade !!! may go higher will watch for re-entry or just enjoy profits!!!

Screen Shot 2014-08-09 at 10.20.24 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-09 at 10.20.28 AM

$6,665 profit on SSYS.

Entry comments: SWING – into earnings……personal stop loss low 96′s as 96.5 has bee low last week……goal is to get move into the 100′s pre – earnings and offset options that are down and or add to gain. Exit comments: Super Trade from 96.97 and offset option risk.

Screen Shot 2014-08-09 at 10.20.45 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-09 at 10.20.50 AM

$2,115 loss on BIDU.

Entry comments: CHART 4ema stop personal target 221-223 plus if it works. Exit comments: I was down 20k at one point because of rule breaking on stop loss…..averaged down as was beaten with market and out almost flat…bad example but good result!

Screen Shot 2014-08-09 at 10.21.06 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-09 at 10.21.10 AM

Lastly we have Tim.

$5,291 profit on VGGL.

Entry comments: Fast growing app reporting record new users today, only $45 million marketcap, should continue surging tomorrow, goal is to sell in high 3s or low 4s, remember YOD’s 2 to 7 run in 2 days? And they didn’t even have any user growth! Exit comments: It’s nearly hitting 4 now but I’m not sure if that wall of sellers will break so I take safe 40+ cents/share profits, near best case scenario for me, potential re-buy on any uptrending which could signify a bigger spike, but gotta respect the wall for now.

Screen Shot 2014-08-09 at 10.22.33 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-09 at 10.22.38 AM

$7,283 profit on CBDE.

Entry comments: Bought CBDE on solid dip off the afternoon highs, lots of people expected a big spike into the close and are now panicking, I did video lesson I’ll publish tomorrow saying I expected this, goal is still to sell in the low 4s next week, any article that makes a comparison to SolarCity would help a ton but not sure if anyone will write it, I like buying contract winners just above support (3.50) on big dips, they tend to retest the highs if not breakout the next trading day! Exit comments: NICE solid overnight gap up, traded as high at 4.30 premarket but it was on low volume, this is a solid low risk/hold over the weekend gain, 30-50 cents/share from my buy alert, and while it might spike more, I’m going to focus more on VOIL as it has a greater chance for a big 20-30-40% win today, let’s see if that pump can crack! Congrats to all weekend CBDE longs and VOIL shorts, I was patient, meticulous with my approach and dead on with these both.

Screen Shot 2014-08-09 at 10.22.57 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-09 at 10.23.02 AM

$2,649 profit on JMBA.

Entry comments: Dip bought this earnings winner after big spike to 13.60, could this be this casual restaurant’s Chipotle moment? It’s possible, aiming to make 50 cents/share, will do video lesson. Exit comments: I probly should give this more time, but making $2500 in an hour is too good to pass up on this choppy stock, it’s a confirmed multi-month breakout above 13.20-13.25 so I might re-buy later in the day if it can hold gains all day.

Screen Shot 2014-08-09 at 10.23.26 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-09 at 10.23.31 AM

Lastly, there was a painful loss, but a great learning opportunity for Tim and his students.

$15,636 loss on HGSH.

Entry comments: Buying this low float/former runner earnings winner on a big dip off its day highs, big seller at 3.50 but if he gets taken out this booms to the high 3s or even low 4s, I like my odds of a gap up/morning spike next week too. Exit comments: No bounce, bigger sellers on the ask, still up a ton on the day, I’m heading to Italy next week, VERY important video lesson coming tomorrow on this trade, it’s a MUST WATCH, tough $15k loss for me, but that’s the risk when you go big and are dead wrong.

Screen Shot 2014-08-09 at 10.23.52 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-09 at 10.23.57 AM

Previous Roundups:

March 30-April 4

April 7-April 11

April 14-April 18

April 21-April 25

April 28-May 2

May 5-May 9

May 12-May 16

May 19-May 23

May 27-May 30

June 2-June 6

June 9-June 13

June 16-June 20

June 23-June 27

June 30-July 3

July 7-July 11

July 14-July18

Weekly Roundup July 28-August 1

Aug 10, 2014   //   by Profitly   //   Profitly, Profitly Weekly  //  Comments Off

$154,725 profit on HURC. Long Stock by super_trades

Entry comments: SWING – New 3d play …6mm float.. already very profitable CNC company is introducing 3d printer this summer……from last ER in June – Hurco will be highlighting new technologies at IMTS, such as AdaptiPathTM and our 3D printing capability. personal stop loss 27 area and personal target 30 plus if it works Exit comments: sold remaining last two days around 35 avg will verify entire triad….still love story just will re-enter based on chart rules or news going forward.

Screen Shot 2014-08-02 at 10.11.08 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-02 at 10.11.13 AM

$6,689 profit on DDD. Long Option by super_trades

Entry comments: think selling overdone Exit comments: SUPER TRADE 7k Profits on calling the DDD bottom !!!!!

Screen Shot 2014-08-02 at 10.10.41 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-02 at 10.10.47 AM

$5,906 profit on LOCO. Long Stock by super_trades

Entry comments: TRADE – goal is for 2nd day follow through mon morn….personal stop loss 24 area and personal target 25.5 plus if it works. Exit comments: SUPER TRADE !! May go higher but taking the easy 5-6k on the gap up !!!!

Screen Shot 2014-08-02 at 10.11.31 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-02 at 10.11.35 AM

$2,587 loss on USAC. Long Stock by super_trades

Entry comments: natural gas compression see comments in Super Pro video personal stop loss 4ema and personal target 26.5 plus if it works Exit comments: out small loss love the stock and will revisit for big position when price action is more to my liking.

Screen Shot 2014-08-02 at 10.12.03 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-02 at 10.12.07 AM

$3,047 profit on WATT. Short Stock by timothysykes

Entry comments: Shorting overnight on this nearly $1/share spike, but noticeably hanging just below former support in the 11.75-11.80 range, as this expose reaches more people overnight it should spread, goal is to cover in the high 10s or even mid to low 10s if we get a big morning panic tomorrow. Exit comments: Got a decent gap down, but not enough volume to crack through support at 10.80-11, possibly because Seeking Alpha article no longer show up on Yahoo Finance, still a GREAT gain.

Screen Shot 2014-08-02 at 10.12.30 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-02 at 10.12.36 AM

$2,066 profit on WATT. Short Stock by timothysykes

Entry comments: Shorting based on this expose http://tim.ly/1oLT2Me saying the stock is worthless, it’s a good one and should scare longs/embolden shorts like it is me. Almost a #6 pattern from my 7 step PennyStocking Framework DVD, if it takes out support at 11.80ish, watch out, goal is the low 11s or even high 10s given this expose/failing chart pattern, I shorted via IB, shorting a bit early in fear of IB running out of shares to short/annoying SSR in place. Exit comments: I didnt think it would crack support so easily, covered for solid but wussy profits, now 11.45 congrats to those still short grrrrr forgot how good I was at shorting, it’s been a while! Probly will look to reshort into the market close for a probable morning panic tomorrow, congrats guys!

Screen Shot 2014-08-02 at 10.12.58 AMScreen Shot 2014-08-02 at 10.13.04 AM

$2,948 loss on MOVE. Long Stock by timothysykes

Entry comments: Bought this multi-week breakout/Z/TRLA sympathy play that is very cheap compared to that merger’s valuations, on a nice dip 50 cents/share off day highs, very similar to DTLK on Friday, should hold 15 since that’s the major breakout so I’m risking 10-15 cents/share, upside of 50 cents or more if it can spike tomorrow morning and retest today’s highs, earnings tomorrow after the close, some of the 3 million shorts should be worried given this price action. Exit comments: Got the bullish analyst note & Seeking alpha article overnight but no big morning spike/gap up today and Z/TRLA are down slightly so playing it safe since it’s just barely a breakout above 15 and this is a slow moving stock…gotta play safe when things don’t go EXACTLY as planned, the news was predictable and dead on, the price action though is disappointing.

Screen Shot 2014-08-02 at 10.13.25 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-02 at 10.13.31 AM

$3,636 profit on CTL. Short Stock by InvestorsLive

Auto Import trades as of the 2nd of August — two random trades in this batch that cost me a lot of $$ which I have a blog post I am writing – how to prevent, what happened and how I will ‘get back to basics’
Screen Shot 2014-08-03 at 8.51.10 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-03 at 8.51.14 AM

$1,781 profit on LOCO. Short Stock by InvestorsLive

Screen Shot 2014-08-03 at 8.51.34 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-03 at 8.51.38 AM

$13,629 loss on LOCO. Short Stock by InvestorsLive

Screen Shot 2014-08-03 at 8.51.57 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-03 at 8.52.02 AM

$15,020 loss on TWTR. Short Stock by InvestorsLive

Screen Shot 2014-08-03 at 8.52.23 AM Screen Shot 2014-08-03 at 8.52.27 AM

Previous Roundup Posts:

March 30-April 4

April 7-April 11

April 14-April 18

April 21-April 25

April 28-May 2

May 5-May 9

May 12-May 16

May 19-May 23

May 27-May 30

June 2-June 6

June 9-June 13

June 16-June 20

June 23-June 27

June 30-July 3

July 7-July 11

July 14-July 18

July 21-July 25

Profiting When The Stock Market Falls

Aug 5, 2014   //   by Profitly   //   Market, Profitly  //  Comments Off

If you would have simply invested in a Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P500, or Nasdaq index fund this past week, or even since the start of the year for the Dow, you would have lost money. Yes, you read that correctly, you would have LOST money by investing in index funds that a majority of people believe are safe investments.

On the other hand, if you would have been following our gurus (which a lot of people try to tell you is super risky, you would most likely would have made a great deal of money.

Here’s a comparison of how the Dow, S&P500, Nasdaq are stacking up against our gurus Sykes, InvestorsLive, and Superman. It’s not completely apples to apples since I did the stock market’s return in percentage terms and the guru’s in dollars, but you’ll get the idea:

Screen Shot 2014-08-02 at 9.48.28 AM

This week alone the S&P dropped nearly 3% while Superman closed out a trade for a $150,000+ profit!

Screen Shot 2014-08-02 at 9.50.40 AM

The Dow had its worst week since the week ended January 24 and the S&P saw its largest weekly point decline since May 2012 and its largest percentage drop since June 2012. Ouch. SO why was it such a bad week in the general market? With stocks still near record highs after a strong 2013, any sort of global tension, poor economic report, or market related surprises can quickly cause the market to fall.

Business Insider did a great job summing it up in this post.

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE RISES AND STOCKS SEE WORST WEEK IN TWO YEARS: Here’s What You Need To Know

Stocks slipped for the second straight day, and posted their worst weekly loss since in two years, as the July jobs report came in a bit below expectations and the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.2% from 6.1%. After yesterday’s sharp sell-off, stocks again sank during the morning, but pared some of these losses through the afternoon.

And now, the top stories on Friday:

1.  The S&P 500 finished the week down 2.6%, its worst performance since June 2012. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by the same amount, and has now virtually wiped out its 2014 gains. “Whether it’s the Portuguese bank, Argentina or continued unrest in the Middle East, these things are seemingly mattering more to investors now,” Matt McCormick, who helps oversee $11 billion as a fund manager at Cincinnati-based Bahl & Gaynor Inc., told Bloomberg. “All of a sudden, geopolitical things that didn’t matter a few weeks ago are starting to be more relevant concerns, and they’re serving as catalysts to sell. Investors are getting more risk-averse.”

2.  The July jobs report showed the U.S. economy added 209,000 nonfarm payrolls, fewer than the 230,000 that was expected by economists as the unemployment rate rose to 6.2% from 6.1%. Average hours worked were unchanged at 34.5 in July, and wage growth also remained tepid, staying flat over the prior month and growing 2% over the prior year, below expectations for 2.2% growth. Following the report, Dean Maki at Barclays said, “Overall, we view this report as consistent with a return to more moderate job growth in Q3 after the Q2 surge.”

3. The July jobs report also marked the sixth-straight month that the economy added 200,000 or more jobs, marking the first such stretch since 1997. Chris Rupkey, chief economist at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ said, “Quite a milestone today in terms of the number of nonfarm payroll jobs the economy is creating. Six months in a row of big 200K or more monthly numbers. The labor market is strong.”

4. A number of Wall Street economists weighed in on how the report could impact the Federal Reserve’s policy going forward. Dean Maki at Deutsche Bank said, “The slower pace of job growth, the rise in the unemployment rate, and the flat reading on the headline average hourly earnings series all point to slightly less pressure on the Fed to raise rates soon than recent readings might have suggested. Still, we remain comfortable with our view that the Fed will first hike rates in June 2015.” Drew Matus at UBS said following the report that, “Oddly, the slight increase in the unemployment rate was likely welcome news within the Federal Reserve would have pressured their policy outlook.” Overall, the report likely didn’t pressure the Fed’s policy.

5. The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its latest personal income and outlays survey, which contains the personal consumption expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. “Core” PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 1.5% in June against the prior year, but was flat when compared to the prior month. “The acceleration in US income growth in June suggests that in the second half of the year annualized consumption growth will rise from the average of 2.3% of the past two years to close to 3%,” Capital Economics said.

6. In addition to the jobs report, two manufacturing indexes came in mixed. Markit’s July PMI came in at 55.8, below expectations for a 56.5 reading and below June’s 56.3.  Following the report, Markit’s chief economist Chris Williamson said, “July data pointed to continued strong growth of production levels and incoming new business across the U.S. manufacturing sector, although the latest survey indicated some loss of momentum since the previous month. Employment growth also moderated during July, and was the weakest in the current 13-month period of workforce expansion.” The Institute for Supply Management’s latest manufacturing report, however, came in better than expected at 57.1 beating expectations for 56.0 and topping June’s 55.3. The prices paid subcomponent of the ISM report also beat expectations, rising to 59.5 from June’s 58.0 and the 58.0 expected by economists.

7. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey for July slipped to 81.8 from 82.5 in June, though this reading was in-line with expectations. “Overall, today’s report shows consumer sentiment in the same narrow range where it has remained so far this year, but well below readings seen during the housing bubble,” said Barclays’ Dean Maki. “Thus, it remains consistent with continued moderate growth in consumer spending.”

To see the final three headlines, read the article on their website.

 

Series: The Greatest Trades of All-Time Part Six

Jul 31, 2014   //   by Profitly   //   Best Trades, Profitly  //  Comments Off

We started a new series on Profitly a couple of weeks ago covering some of the greatest trades of all time. Millions of trades are made every day, but most of them are not for the kinds of profits we are diving in to. They’re more likely to be a few hundred here, a few thousand there. It’s hard to compare to the two trades we are highlighting below, although some of the trades on Profitly are worth noting.

For instance, Tim made more than $70k on this trade ($70,982 profit EKSO), lx21 made $470k on this trade ($470,394 profit STXS), Superman made $419k here ($419,777 profit SPEX), Tim’s second millionaire student made $100k on this trade ($101,404 profit FNMA), his first millionaire student made $88k on this trade ($88,401 profit LSCG), and InvestorsLive made $80k on this trade ($80,728 profit RAYS).

But alas, it is really hard to top the trades detailed below. First we discussed Jesse Livermore’s $100 million profit when he shorted the 1929 stock market crash and second we discussed Paul Tudor Jones’ $100 million when he predicted Black Monday in 1987. Business Insider does a great job of finding the best trades. Then we covered Andy Krieger’s $300 million profit by shorting the Kiwi (New Zealand Dollar) in the late 80′s and then Jim Rogers’ prediction of the long term bull market in commodities. Then in part three we covered George Soros ‘short of the British pound netting him $1 billion and Stanley Druckenmiller’s bet on the German mark that made $1 billion. Then we talked about Jim Chanos’ short on Enron, and Andrew Hall’s massive long bet on oil, which made enough to warrant a $100 million bonus. In part five we covered John Arnold’s bet against a rival energy hedge fund’s natural gas positions which netted him a 200 percent return and John Paulson’s outstanding call shorting subprime mortgages just before the financial crisis hit, making $3-4 billion.

In our final installment, we’ll start off by covering another bet against subprime mortgages, this time by Kyle Bass. This guy also netted $3-4 billion on the trade. Bass became well-known after this trade, successfully predicting and benefitting from the subprime mortgage crisis by purchasing credit default swaps on subprime securities issued by various investment banks (similar to shorting the bonds).

jkyle-bass-generic-tbi

Via business insider

Last but not least, David Tepper made $7 billion going long on banks after the financial crisis. In 2009, just after the financial crisis hit and everyone thought the global financial system was on the verge of collapse, David Tepper kept his cool and bought enormous quantities of severely depressed big bank stocks—Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BOA). By the end of the year, Bank of America quadrupled and Citi had trebled from it’s post-crash lows, netting Tepper’s hedge fund a cool $7 billion, of which $4 billion went right into Tepper’s coffers. Must be nice! While this seems like an obvious bet in hindsight, there was a lot of worry at the time that big banks would be nationalized.

Via business insider

Via business insider

As we pointed out throughout this series, the Profitly gurus may not be making million dollar profits on single trades, but as you can see in the links above, they are making trades with profits equal to or even above the average person’s annual salary, meaning they are still a far cry from the average investor who puts money in their 401k and hopes to become a millionaire by the time they retire. Sure, you have years like 2013 where you would have done “ok” by investing simply in an S&P500 index fund, but most years are a far cry from the 30% return we saw then. This year for example the index is only up about 5% or so. Not so great if you ask me.

Hope you enjoyed hearing about these great trades! Learn from them and look back at them for motivation in your own trading life. Maybe we’ll be reading about one of your trades some day! Be sure to post all of your trades on Profitly!

Weekly Roundup July 21-25

Jul 28, 2014   //   by Profitly   //   Profitly, Profitly Weekly  //  Comments Off

Here’s our newest weekly roundup!

We’ll start with Super Trades, who is closing in on a million in profits since the start of 2014!

First is a $3,912 profit on KNDI.

Entry comments: puts on KNDI personal stop 1.25 personal target 2.5 plus. Exit comments: SUPER TRADE $4k profit on KNDI puts.

Screen Shot 2014-07-27 at 6.44.40 PM Screen Shot 2014-07-27 at 6.44.48 PM

Then we have a $23,178 profit on SGNL.

Entry comments: 850k float beaten down IPO making move on volume…personal stop 5.5 area and personal target 7 plus if works. Exit comments: SUPER TrADE.

Screen Shot 2014-07-27 at 6.45.10 PM Screen Shot 2014-07-27 at 6.45.15 PM

Next, a $14,550 profit on CLWT.

Entry comments: Traveling. Exit comments: SUPER TRADE $15k ++ will watch and may revisit.

Screen Shot 2014-07-27 at 6.45.36 PM Screen Shot 2014-07-27 at 6.45.42 PM

There was one notable loss: -$2,084 on ONVO.

Entry comments: TRADE personal stop loss 8.5 area and personal target 9.5 plus if it works on news with JNJ. Exit comments: taking small loss due to radio interview was over 9 and could have had profit.

Screen Shot 2014-07-27 at 6.46.04 PM Screen Shot 2014-07-27 at 6.46.08 PM

Next up is InvestorsLive: first a $14,800 profit on NEWL.

Screen Shot 2014-07-27 at 6.48.50 PM Screen Shot 2014-07-27 at 6.48.55 PM

Then there was a $2,146 profit on GLUU.

Screen Shot 2014-07-27 at 6.49.15 PM Screen Shot 2014-07-27 at 6.49.28 PM

One loss: -$6,380 on GLUU.

Screen Shot 2014-07-27 at 6.49.49 PM Screen Shot 2014-07-27 at 6.49.54 PM

Last but not least we have TIm. Starting with a $1,870 profit on RVLT.

Entry comments: Bought this often-spiker towards the bottom of its range, only 5 cents/share or so of risk, gonna try to sell into one of its many spikes, they LOVE issuing hyped up PRs, might take a little while but the chart is prime for a low risk dip buy. Exit comments: No big morning pop/spike/gap up play safe and get out.

Screen Shot 2014-07-27 at 6.50.41 PM Screen Shot 2014-07-27 at 6.50.46 PM

There was also a $1,553 loss on PXLW.

Entry comments: Trying again as it already made new highs in the 9.40s today and now basing above previous highs at 9.20 & morning high of 9.14, so I’m buying this breakout on a dip, if it closes anywhere around here or ideally a bit stronger, we should see the high 9s or even low 10s tomorrow, goal is to sell there, risk is this is another top and I lose 10-20 cents/share. Exit comments: Not closing strong, gotta play it safe, cutting losses quickly, potential rebuy tomorrow if it does want to breakout.

Screen Shot 2014-07-27 at 6.51.00 PM Screen Shot 2014-07-27 at 6.51.08 PM

Previous Roundups:

March 30-April 4

April 7-April 11

April 14-April 18

April 21-April 25

April 28-May 2

May 5-May 9

May 12-May 16

May 19-May 23

May 27-May 30

June 2-June 6

June 9-June 13

June 16-June 20

June 23-June 27

June 30-July 3

July 7-July 11

July 14-July18

Series: The Greatest Trades of All-Time Part Five

Jul 24, 2014   //   by Profitly   //   Best Trades, Profitly  //  Comments Off

We started a new series on Profitly a couple of weeks ago covering some of the greatest trades of all time. Millions of trades are made every day, but most of them are not for the kinds of profits we are diving in to. They’re more likely to be a few hundred here, a few thousand there. It’s hard to compare to the two trades we are highlighting below, although some of the trades on Profitly are worth noting.

For instance, Tim made more than $70k on this trade ($70,982 profit EKSO), lx21 made $470k on this trade ($470,394 profit STXS), Superman made $419k here ($419,777 profit SPEX), Tim’s second millionaire student made $100k on this trade ($101,404 profit FNMA), his first millionaire student made $88k on this trade ($88,401 profit LSCG), and InvestorsLive made $80k on this trade ($80,728 profit RAYS).

But alas, it is really hard to top the trades detailed below. First we discussed Jesse Livermore’s $100 million profit when he shorted the 1929 stock market crash and second we discussed Paul Tudor Jones’ $100 million when he predicted Black Monday in 1987. Business Insider does a great job of finding the best trades. Then we covered Andy Krieger’s $300 million profit by shorting the Kiwi (New Zealand Dollar) in the late 80′s and then Jim Rogers’ prediction of the long term bull market in commodities. Then in part three we covered George Soros ‘short of the British pound netting him $1 billion and Stanley Druckenmiller’s bet on the German mark that made $1 billion. Then we talked about Jim Chanos’ short on Enron, and Andrew Hall’s massive long bet on oil, which made enough to warrant a $100 million bonus.

Now in part five, we’ll start off by covering John Arnold’s bet against a rival energy hedge fund’s natural gas positions. When energy hedge fund Amaranth LLC collapsed in the fall of 2006, after quickly losing more than $6 billion, Enron-alum John Arnold at rival energy hedge fund Centaurus Energy, returned 200 percent.

Via Forbes

Via Forbes

Amaranth’s Brian Hunter was betting that natural gas prices would rise as winter set in, but meteorologists began predicting a mild winter, the energy fund started bleeding money, facing $3 billion in margin calls at one point. All the while, Arnold had taken a short position on natural gas and was minting money as quickly as Amarnath was losing it.

Then we have one of my favorite trades. John Paulson shorted subprime mortgages just before the financial crisis hit and made $3-4 billion. It wasn’t that long ago that few people saw the housing bubble coming, and even fewer got the timing just right. John Paulson was one of them. While financial giants were still voraciously buying up all sorts of financial assets backed by subprime mortgages, Paulson’s hedge fund, Paulson & Co, bet against them, and heavily. He convinced banks to write credit-default-swaps on such mortgage-backed assets, and then proceeded to snap up as many as he could. Then he just sat and waited for the market to go kaput, and cashed in. His hedge fund made around $3-4 billion on the deal.

john paulson

As we pointed out in the previous posts, the Profitly gurus may not be making million dollar profits on single trades, but as you can see in the links above, they are making trades with profits equal to or even above the average person’s annual salary, meaning they are still a far cry from the average investor who puts money in their 401k and hopes to become a millionaire by the time they retire. Sure, you have years like 2013 where you would have done “ok” by investing simply in an S&P500 index fund, but most years are a far cry from the 30% return we saw then. This year for example the index is only up about 5% or so. Not so great if you ask me.

We still aren’t finished covering these amazing trades either! The series will continue with the final installment shortly. We saved two of the best for last.

Pages:1234567...19»