Why Most People Suck At Investing

Sep 15, 2014   //   by Profitly   //   Market, Profitly, Psychology  //  No Comments

Guess what. Most people are HORRIBLE at investing. That’s right, most people do a terrible job of picking out which stocks or sectors will rise and which will fall. You may or may not have heard this before, but it shouldn’t come as a surprise.

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Image via glogster.com

A recent article by Business Insider dove in to just how bad most people really are when it comes to investing.

First and foremost, one big problem is that investors often find themselves buying at highs and selling at lows, especially when volatility picks up and patience is tested. The problem is that so many people keep holding a stock for far too long, thinking it will turn around and move in the direction that they want it to. They then become emotionally invested in it and blind to the reasons that it WON’T move in their direction. If you follow our gurus’ rules and limit your losses, you have less of an attachment to the stock and will be able to make better decisions. You still won’t buy at the very lowest and sell at the very highest, but you buy lower than you sell and still net a profit.

“Amidst difficult financial times, emotional instincts often drive investors to take actions that make no rational sense but make perfect emotional sense,” said BlackRock back in 2012. “Psychological factors such as fear often translate into poor timing of buys and sells.”

Richard Bernstein of Richard Bernstein Advisors considers twenty years of historical data for this in a new research note.

“The performance of the typical investor over this time period is shockingly poor,” wrote Bernstein. “The average investor has underperformed every category except Asian emerging market and Japanese equities. The average investor even underperformed cash (listed here as 3-month t-bills)! The average investor underperformed nearly every asset class. They could have improved performance by simply buying and holding any asset class other than Asian emerging market or Japanese equities. Thus, their underperformance suggests investors’ timing of asset allocation decisions must have been particularly poor, i.e., investors consistently bought assets that were overvalued and sold assets that were undervalued.”

Bernstein’s data is based on the buying and selling activity of mutual fund investors.

“They bought high and sold low,” he added. “When chaos occurred, investors ran away.”

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None of our gurus get 100% of their trades right, but you’ll hear them preach over and over again that the driver of their success is limiting losses. The famous economist John Maynard Keynes once said “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” It basically means that your investment thesis could be completely right, but the market may not realize that until you’ve been forced out of your position due to massive losses. I don’t think any of us could have said it better ourselves.

For example, Tim could be shorting the crappiest company out there, but if mailers continue to go out at a record pace, the stock could continue to climb considerably higher. That’s why Tim cuts losses quickly and is always prepared to make a trade at a moments notice. Losing $1000 on a trade isn’t a big deal for him, but losing $100,000 on a trade would be. With the small loss, you move on and simply get prepared for the next pattern to present itself.

Weekly Roundup September 2-5

Sep 14, 2014   //   by Profitly   //   Profitly, Profitly Weekly  //  No Comments

Time for another one of our weekly roundups highlighting the biggest trades from the prior week! The goal of this post is to make it far easier for you to track our guru’s trades, both wins and losses.

First up is Superman, who had quite a few big winners this week!

$4,150 profit on MAGS. Long Stock by super_trades

Entry comments: TRADE see watch list notes personal stop loss 4.5 area and personal target 5.5-6 plus if works.

Exit comments: SUPER TRADE may go higher and will watch.

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$14,350 profit on IDN. Long Stock by super_trades

Entry comments: TRADE / SWING will sell if it goes against me…..personal target 5.5-6 plus….they have a police app that has biz model like the cams to me as they trying to sign up police agencies…low float reverse split also

Exit comments: SUPER TRADE – may still work and will watch for any news…..wanted more follow through today

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$30,650 profit on CSIQ. Long Stock by super_trades

Entry comments: CHART / SWING starter position personal stop loss 4ema and personal target 38-40 plus if it works…had blow out report and nice order today….to me undervalued to peers.

Exit comments: SUPER TRADE !!! will revisit if dips.

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($2,800) loss on DRNE. Long Stock by super_trades

Entry comments: CHART / SWING be aware this is an OTCBB/PK stock…. drone company has announced govt deals…4ema personal stop loss area and personal target 1.75- 2 plus if it works

Exit comments: out for small loss….very well may still work…but i was jaded by my trip under water……will watch for news or uplist……otcbb not my favorite as we all know

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Then we have InvestorsLive, who was definitely busy trading this week!

$5,441 profit on ISNS. Short Stock by InvestorsLive

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$12,153 profit on DGLY. Short Stock by InvestorsLive

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$4,071 profit on ACHN. Short Stock by InvestorsLive

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($5,632) loss on ISNS. Short Stock by InvestorsLive

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Last but not least, we have Tim Sykes!

$8,703 profit on ISNS. Short Stock by timothysykes

Entry comments: Shorting some overnight as I’m not sure there will be shares to short tomorrow. Risk of further pricing so keeping position small.

Exit comments: NICE tank into the market close, not sure it’ll last, playing it safe, taking biggest gain of the day, probable reshort later today after hours or tomorrow ideally into spiking

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$3,500 profit on ISNS. Short Stock by timothysykes

Entry comments: Shorted some into the madness, goal is to make quick 50-75 cents/share

Exit comments: Bingo, nice panic, huuuuge volume, got much of my morning losses back

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$2,800 profit on ISNS. Short Stock by timothysykes

Entry comments: Reshort as its going red, I’m overthinking, this is probly tank day, gotta try to make 50 cents on this

Exit comments: Still no big crack, DGLY keeps running, this might have one last spike in it, gotta play safe when things do go EXACTLY teh way you think

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$3,863 profit on ISNS. Short Stock by timothysykes

Entry comments: Shorted the afternoon crack, goal is to cover in high 6s, SSR now in effect so it’sll be annoying but should have big wall of sellers on the ask as a result

Exit comments: Another big score on ISNS, taking safe profits even though it’ll likely continue to drop, this is how I trade, safelyyyyy, congrats guys!

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$3,281 profit on ISNS. Short Stock by timothysykes

Entry comments: Shorted on failure to spike big in the morning, panic possible, nice to see IB have it available to short

Exit comments: Now down to 6.40s so I played it too safe, but nice to get back $3k on this choppy stock…thesis still holds true that its worthless and should tank much more, congrats all shorts, especially IB users who found shorts today!

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($6,880) loss on ISNS. Short Stock by timothysykes

Entry comments: Shorted this Supernova early premarket thanks to my high net worth broker (email admin@timothysykes.com if you have $30k and want intro), costs .016 cents/share to borrow, small position due to risk, but given DGLY down $5/share this could tank 50 cents/share or more by the market open

Exit comments: Deadwrong, cutting losses fast to protect myself

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($4,998) loss on ISNS. Short Stock by timothysykes

Entry comments: Got a little bounce to short into, goal is to cover into sheer panic tomorrow, ideally 50-75 cents/share

Exit comments: Wasted these shares by shorting too early and now covering too safely even as this fades, scary to short on Fridays scary when multiple people try to squeeze you, that’s the price of full transparency, GREAT video lesson coming on this not so horrible loss but horribly executed, now 6.60s and fading and I have no more buying power to reshort :(

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($3,800) loss on ISNS. Short Stock by timothysykes

Entry comments: Shorted since its near top of ita recent range and DGLY is fading which should take down the whole sector, ISNS really crashes if/when it breaks 8.60-8.50 I look to cover into that panic or even near support hold

Exit comments: Not fadng with DGLY, still strong, can’t risk big spike, cut losses quickly

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($3,115) loss on ISNS. Short Stock by timothysykes

Entry comments: I transferred funds from another broekrage account to my high net worth broker to re-short this thing which is fading gradually, once it takes out 6.45-6.40 support it can crash and maybe even go under 6 today if not early next week, goal is to make 50-75 cents/share, remember it’s under the SSR so unfortunately you have to be early on the short as once it panics it’ll drop too quickly to get an execution

Exit comments: One last screw up to end the week, hearing buyins at a few brokerages, no thanks to weekend borrow fees and another morning spike, ending the week +$20k, escaping is more like it, no weekend short-term positions, GREAT video lesson on the SSR coming tomorrow

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And here are the previous roundups!

March 30-April 4

April 7-April 11

April 14-April 18

April 21-April 25

April 28-May 2

May 5-May 9

May 12-May 16

May 19-May 23

May 27-May 30

June 2-June 6

June 9-June 13

June 16-June 20

June 23-June 27

June 30-July 3

July 7-July 11

July 14-July18

August 4-August 8

August 11-August 15

August 18-August 22

August 25-August 29

 

Weekly Roundup August 25-29

Sep 4, 2014   //   by Profitly   //   Best Trades, Profitly, Profitly Weekly  //  Comments Off

We hope you all had a great Labor Day weekend! Last week was a slow one in the stock market, but that didn’t stop our gurus from finding trades and having some huge profits!

First we have Tim.

$4,431 profit on JRJC.

Entry comments: Re-shorted with bigger size since its fading now, once it goes red/takes out the day low this could crash 50-75 cents/share today. Exit comments: NICE collapse, that’s what I wanted the first time, probly goes under 10 but I don’t trust this stock so I’m taking safe profits, great video lesson coming, try try again!

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$7,613 profit on LLLI.

Entry comments: Bought this DGLY/TASR sympathy play on nice dp off its highs to reduce the risk, still surging on news of this big potential order from Canada http://tim.ly/VKQBhA goal is to make 20-30-50%, not sure how high it can go, gotta love penny stocks, DGLY keeps going too. Exit comments: Tried to give it time, it broke out to new highs, but just barely, too close to being a double for my comfort, I might re-buy some before the market close, but nothing huge given this kind of toppy-like price action.

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$2,871 profit on ISNS.

Entry comments: Failed to hold 4.50 breakout, goal is to cover in low 4s if not high 3s. Exit comments: Not cracking, play safe.

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$3,797 profit on TUBE.

Entry comments: Buying this earnings winner towards bottom of its recent range, gonna try to hold overnight for probable spike tomorrow but if I can make 30-50 cents/share today no overnight risk I’ll probly take that too. Exit comments: I couldn’t help myself taking mid-day risk-free profits, called it all the way, congrats longs! Potential re-buy closer to the market close or if it can break past 13.60-13.70 choppiness.

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$4,075 loss on TUBE.

Entry comments: Back in for the spike. Exit comments: Cutting losses fast this stock has messed with my head, did the right thing cutting losses quickly premarket, now it’s just choppy and range bound.

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$3,712 loss on TUBE.

Entry comments: Bought 15000 shares TUBE at 14.29 – Missed TUBE breakout at 14 up to 14.70 now buying on dip, usually you get 2 chances at least before any big runup, goal is to make a quick 30-50 cents/share. Exit comments: Not bouncing the way I thought it would, still above 14 which is key, sellers becoming more entrenched, cutting losses, stinks but don’t let a failed trade turn into an investment and I have a big meeting to go to right now…this is probly fine longterm, but that’s not why I got into this so I have to stay disciplined.

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$8,591 loss on ISNS.

Entry comments: Starter short into this madness spike, it’s Supernova time, straight out of my DVDs, see PennyStocking Part Deux, these will all crash later this week, just be careful about shorting too early, tons of shares available everywhere, goal is to cover in 3s. Exit comments: Heading in wrong direction, no thank you, cutting losses quickly.

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Then we have Superman.

$8,910 profit on VII.

Entry comments: TRADE / SWING andygold find police and surveillance cameras merging with a leader in space float 2.5mm personal stop loss low 2′s and personal target 3.25 plus if works. Exit comments: may go higher but #SUPERTRADE.

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$7,000 profit on DSKY.

Entry comments: CHART / SWING personal stop loss 4ema or high 19′s and personal target 21-23 plus if it works. Exit comments: SUPER TRADE will keep on watch.

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$70,701 profit on WLDN.

Entry comments: SWING – do not chase – one of best reports of season imo….25 eps and strong comments forward…personal stop loss low 8′s and personal target 10-12 plus if it works. Exit comments: SUPER TRADE like a $70k trade will come back to this when chart heals.

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Last but not least we have InvestorsLive.

$1,537 profit on QIHU.

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$4,476 profit on DGLY.

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$8,186 profit on SBOTF.

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$4,774 loss on BKW.

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$4,793 loss on CENX.

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Don’t miss our previous roundups here:

March 30-April 4

April 7-April 11

April 14-April 18

April 21-April 25

April 28-May 2

May 5-May 9

May 12-May 16

May 19-May 23

May 27-May 30

June 2-June 6

June 9-June 13

June 16-June 20

June 23-June 27

June 30-July 3

July 7-July 11

July 14-July18

August 4-August 8

August 11-August 15

August 18-August 22

 

The Best Financial Watch Lists

Sep 2, 2014   //   by Profitly   //   Profitly  //  Comments Off

Forget about listening to Jim Cramer and other talking heads telling you to Buy Buy Buy or Sell Sell Sell. The watch lists that our gurus Superman, Timothy Sykes and InvestorsLive put out every trading day are far more educational and profitable. Not only do they say to buy or sell, but they give you a reason why and the price action you should be watching for before you make a trade! Below are three example watch lists from this month, with one from each guru.

Superman

superman

Follow The PlayBook & Rules As Futures Are Down Today !!!!

SCOK was a successful trade yesterday !! Ameritrade was having technical issues and it made me have small losses on MMYT ( which ended up $1 from my alert ) and CNIT……The market was up yesterday and most stocks bounced and this morning futures are down big…….just like the other day I will be looking for strong stocks to buy on dips using the charts…..will do Super Pro video on this morning……..…..if you are following the rules and your trade plan you are not only protected but you can take advantage of the dips……….I made $21k on my VJET put option trade !!! See my $21k Option trade !!!!!! ……. I made $73k last week using all 3 types of my trades and my entire strategy !!! See my $73k of trades !!!!!! IPO Tracker on the Super Pro Videos continues to be a hot spot for finding winners!!!….….…….have your own trade plan any time you enter a trade!!! Please note I have been much stricter with rule following !!!! ……… follow the rules NOT ME !!! …..when I do not follow rules I lose $$……………

New stocks to watch for trades today from the scan ….

SCOK CHART china clean coal I successfully traded yesterday will look for pullback near 4ema on market weakness … …..………. personal stop loss would be the 4ema …personal target $1.80 plus if it works

WATT SWING news today .. …..………. personal stop loss would be the 50 day moving average …personal target $13.50 plus if it works

SIMO CHART 2-3 day rest pattern former superwinner from 19’s guides higher other day … …..………. personal stop loss would be the 4ema …personal target $22.75 plus if it works

CNIT CHART ….China cloud play chart still in play … …..………. personal stop loss would be the 4ema …personal target $5.75 plus if it works

Updates on past watch list stocks or alerts

LONG CHART successfully trades this and now 2-3 rest pattern … …..………. personal stop loss would be the 4ema …personal target $22 plus if it works

ZPIN SWING IPO the LNKD of China …. … bought 20k shares 15.3 average …..………. personal stop loss would be the high 13’s …personal target $17-25 plus if it works

BZC SUPER WINNER Bought 7000 shares BZC at 11.3514 – DO NOT CHASE !! 450k float .. NYSE .. reported $0.29 vs $0,12 last year for the Q and nice comments….aerospace supplier…personal stop loss 10.50 area and personal target 12-15 plus if it works SWING

Speculation Corner –

IKNX . reported on tech and expansion……future looks bright for this hold of mine………10k says entering 3d printing and prototyping…original notes →>>→>>>>>>>>.. Bought 7000 shares IKNX at 22.0935 – …..DO NOT CHASE AT ALL – SWING……wanted more but no shares…..read earnings release…personal downside 17 area ….personal target 23-35 initially ….VERY RISKY STOCK AND MOST THINLY TRADE…NOT FOR LARGE POSITIONS CAN MOVE DOLLARS ON LITTLE VOLUME..….….….….…… …..…. …–

REQUIRED LEARNING – There are three types plays defined below -

1) Day Trade will be labeled TRADE in the buy alerts. This is where I hold 1 minute to 1 day and is usually based on a current news item or theme. If I say daytrade / scalp that means I am in for $0.10-$0.50 per share profit (or more if it moves fast) long or short. Could be a very fast trade. If the trade goes against me I will usually sell right away and minimize my losses but this can be situational.

2) A Swing trade will be labeled SWING in the buy alert and this is where i will hold a stock until an event or target range occurs as long as the thesis does not change. Not based on chart. I will give my perceived downside loss risk and upside target range. Once it hits the target range I will start to take partial profit. No I do not know the exact time range each trade will take.

3) A Chart trade will be labeled CHART in the buy alert and this is where the Superman chart rules STRICTLY apply.

Superman Chart Rules – Stock is in play if it closed above the 4ema and RSI>70 on the 12 month daily chart ( see link below how I set them up). If I buy I know my downside risk is down to the 4ema which would be the area I would sell for a los if it closes below. Also if it were to drop below the 4ema intraday and I think it is fatal or will not make it back then I may sell that that point intraday. Typically I will use the close. As long as it closes above the 4ema with RSI > 70 then trade is still on. (4ema is more important). When the stock spikes above the 4ema I take at least half off. One close below the 4EMA can be allowed if the quality of the stock/story is very strong. Another chart pattern is the 2-3 Days of rest pattern. A Stock that has met the above criteria remains above the 4ema and RSI >70 although the stock rests and even pulls back. On the 2-3rd day after rest stock is likely to continue move upward for a trade. I may enter the stock on the 2nd or 3rd day of rest for a trade targeting a move above the most recent high. (Not Full Proof)…….new –→>>>.slow sto20 pattern…….only for former quality runners…stock lost 4ema and dipped and RSI fell off……slow stochastics goes below 20……..when stock reclaims the 4ema it is a a buy and the 4ema becomes the mental stop loss and profit is taking on moves above the 4ema………..

Tim Sykes

sykes

10 Hot Stocks To Watch Today

All Trading Accounts: $1,166,000ish, up 134% in 2014 already as I started 2014 with $500k, I was up 66% in 2013, up 38% in 2012, up 54% in 2011, up 57% in 2010

Yesterday was a $15,000ish profit day for subscribers (-$2k day for me)

Soooooo much in play, gotta focus ONLY on the best plays:

WATT, DRWI, DGLY all have positive news this morning…tough market though so it’ll be tough for them to spike they traders want them to…watch them all though for uptrending/volume as signs of potential spiking, potential buys.

CBMX was my big winner yesterday buying in the 2.30s with a goal of a breakout above multi-day resistance at 2.40…got up to the 2.57 range afterhours yesterday, but its back to 2.40ish premarket today due to the overall market being down…nice overnight Seeking Alpha story might spike it, it’s gotta hold 2.40 for me to hold…disappointing today but with the market down so much, it’ll be tough to have any real momentum stocks.

PXLW ran yesterday on a Seeking Alpha story right to multi-month resistance at 9ish…potential buy if it can ever crack above that, but it faded into the market close yesterday so no overnight position for me…good thing since it’s down substanitally premarket.

CYNK and CBDS are my top 2 potential shorts…see video explaining why HERE as always it’ll be tough to find shares to short so these are my preferred brokers no, Etrade, Scottrade & crappy Sharebuilder won’t EVER have shares to short.

NURO I tried dip buying overnight in the 2.30 area and got a decent morning spike up to 2.50 premarket…the highs near the market open on a little spike were 2.40ish so there was a little upside, but it didn’t get any upgrades or articles overnight so I got out in a hurry…no play now since it’s fading more.

USU I said yesterday “is down but not out…far too many people think it’s going to zero right away…potential buy on this 50% dip off its highs, classic #5 pattern from my PennyStocking Framework DVD” but it faded all day and actually closed right near support at 5.50…I should’ve shorted overnight as it clearly was breaking down, but this stock scared me and I had the wrong bias all day yesterday so I missed out…now near $5/share premarket due to the overall market tanking, potential short.

MEET I had the right idea dip buying in the 2.40s as other newsletters also bought and pushed it to the 2.60s…nothing huge, but nice to be able to predict how other traders trade.

InvestorsLive

investorslive

Scans For InvestorsLive for 07/14/14

Here’s the plan!

BlackBerry Limited (BBRY)  will continue to monitor for the fade but as I’ve said all along the higher it goes the more likely to fill the gap mid 13s …. I don’t want to get TOO ahead of it but I want to start in and be there for it so I can add to a winner — at this rate the more it consolidates the less likely to have a big pull back though

big

WPCS International Incorporated (WPCS) weak open red/green rip .. lotta volume into the last hour $1 over/under … ideally gap up rip .. $1.10 rip thru maybe $1.20-30s + and sit back …  be careful getting to far ahead of this it was a pump (paid tout) on Friday they aren’t dumb they probably have more news lined up .. but will eventually fade

big (1)

Crumbs Bake Shop, Inc. (CRMB) gap up parabolic maybe? more news out this weekend so it may be nothing ..  may gap down … if not I really hope for a gap up and push out of the gate through Friday highs so that we can get a nice short back under .50s because if it does gap … that is going to be the PERFECT lay up trade

big (2)

Achillion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ACHN) weak open red/green breakout through $8 … I always underestimate these rebounds off the lows and end up getting squeezed the first day so my goal is to let it peak out w/ a lower high .. or $8 parabolic and start in .. but nothing to get short early on with any quick weakness because many times they float right back up and ramp

big (3)

American Apparel, Inc. (APP) gapper for me, great start for us on Friday! maybe $1.25-1.30 and then sit back eventually we’ll see great volume

big (4)

Glu Mobile, Inc. (GLUU) weak open r/g for $6 … but ideally for me … $6.10-15 push through $6.20-6.30s + and sit back sub $6

big (5)

Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET) weak open red/green again (worked well Friday)

big (7)

United Continental Holdings, Inc. (UAL) let it run just monitoring if it gives us lower highs

big (8)

Weekly Roundup August 18-22

Aug 30, 2014   //   by Profitly   //   Profitly, Profitly Weekly  //  Comments Off

Time for another weekly roundup! Superman in particular had some big trades this week, so we’ll start with him.

$61,600 profit on SLCA Long Option by super_trades

Entry comments: may roll some aug into sep so prepping for it will use stop if needed. Exit comments: SUPER TRADE $50k IN PROFITS WIL VERIFY TOMORROW.

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$14,250 profit on LOCO. Long Option by super_trades

Entry comments: these are call options into earnings. Exit comments: 15-18k option trade!! may look to do it again if it pullback #SUPERTRADE.

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$2,500 profit on DGLY. Long Stock by super_trades

Entry comments: TRADE personal stop loss 7 area and personal target 8-9 plus if it works. Exit comments: super trade may go higher.

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$3,000 loss on SLXP. Long Stock by super_trades

Entry comments: TRADE 158.5 personal stop loss and 160.50 plus personal target if it works. Exit comments: out for loss watching too many stocks.

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$2,050 loss on REED. Long Stock by super_trades

Entry comments: SWING – kombucha market is new trend and REED is #2 ..private GT #1 … thesis this becomes like red bull vs monster in this category….personal stop loss high 5′s and personal target 7-10 if it works. Exit comments: may still work but lost chart will keep on watch.

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Then we have Tim, who was on vacation this week so he didn’t do that much trading himself, although he was still sending out watch lists for his students.

$3,213 profit on HPJ. Long Stock by timothysykes

Entry comments: Wond contract to have rechargeable batteries in new TIMEX smartwatch, should start rumormill with iWatch & other wearable watches coming out, nice multi-month breakout over 5.30, goal is to make 30-60 cents/share, be careful it might be fast. Exit comments: Woooooo what a rush, buying a contract winner on a dip just above technical support in the 5.30s then selling into a morning spike, easiest trade in months, just had to watch premarket winners; look at the multi-month chart, will do video lesson, congrats to all those who got it, it’s still running now into the 5.70s woooohoooo.

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$7,405 loss on VOIL. Short Stockbytimothysykes

Entry comments: Shorting this blatant pump w.my high net worth broker, email admin@timothysykes.com for intro if you have $30k minimum, goal is to make 30-50% on this one. Exit comments: Buyin notice from my high net worth broker grrrrr, nasty loss after fees, but that’s the risk you take…I’d do it again since big collapse was possible, losing 10 cents/share is worst case scenario…will look to reshort next week, one of these days it’ll drop APPG-style, 30-40-50 cents/share in one day.

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Check out our previous posts too:

March 30-April 4

April 7-April 11

April 14-April 18

April 21-April 25

April 28-May 2

May 5-May 9

May 12-May 16

May 19-May 23

May 27-May 30

June 2-June 6

June 9-June 13

June 16-June 20

June 23-June 27

June 30-July 3

July 7-July 11

July 14-July18

August 4-August 8

August 11-15

New App Update

Aug 27, 2014   //   by Profitly   //   Announcements, Features, Profitly  //  Comments Off

The best finance app just got better. You can now watch your DVDs on the go. Learn from the best anywhere!

Here is a screenshot of what your DVD library should look like:

Watch DVD

Profit.ly Gurus Are Crushing Financial Professionals

Aug 25, 2014   //   by Profitly   //   Profitly  //  Comments Off

Last week we showed you how much better our gurus were doing as opposed to the general markets. Now, we’re here to tell you that not only are they crushing the markets, they’re killing the competition too.

According to a post by Josh Brown of the Reformed Broker, only a quarter of funds are beating the market this year.

The Equity and Quant Strategy group at Bank of America Merrill Lynch updates us on the latest data about active manager performance. Year-to-date, it’s been very difficult for U.S. stock pickers. When benchmarked against the Russell 1000 large cap index, a shockingly small number of funds are above the bogey…

“Year to date, 25% of managers beat the

benchmark. Core managers did best, with

27% beating the benchmark. Value

manager had an 11% hit rate. 20% of

Growth managers beat the benchmark.”

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For some perspective, 37% of managers have been able to beat the market over the last 12 months, so 25% is a really bad showing.

Savita Subramanian & Co do note that July was a good period for active managers, however, as 53% of managers got above their benchmark for the month. Is this the start of something new or just an anomaly during a very tough year?

Brown got this information via a note from Bank of America Merrill Lynch issued on August 8th 2014.

As I said earlier, we told you how awful the general market was doing this year in a post last week. We should note that the stock market did end the week on a high note, with the Dow rising 185 points, but the Dow is still down on the year and people following Superman are still far better off than the general traders. Superman just passed the million dollar mark in profits Year-To-Date! Think he can hit $1.25M in profits by the time he speaks at Tim’s conference in Vegas?

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Time will tell, but regardless, this guy is on fire no matter which way the market goes. A couple of weeks ago he had a $150k+ profit and last week he had several trades that he closed with profits in the 5 figures! To get a percentage placed on this, let’s estimate that he has a portfolio of roughly $2.5 million (since he has $2.38 million in all time profits on Profitly), that would be a return of roughly 40% year-to-date! That’s compared to a 4.5% return for the S&P500 and returns of roughly 4.7% for the average fund manager! Even if we are low balling the amount of money in his portfolio and cut the percentage return in half, you’re still beating the average return by 15%. I don’t know about you guys, but I would take Superman’s returns in a heart beat, especially since I could trade from anywhere in the world and wouldn’t have to sit in an office cubicle.

 

Weekly Roundup August 11-15

Aug 20, 2014   //   by Profitly   //   Profitly, Profitly Weekly  //  Comments Off

Time for another weekly roundup! It may be closing in on the end of summer when most traders are taking off since the stock market is pretty slow, but that doesn’t mean our gurus and their students aren’t profiting!

First we have Tim, who is still trading even though he is overseas on “vacation.” That’s the beauty of being able to trade from anywhere!

$1,919 profit on PZZI. Long Stock by timothysykes

Entry comments: Buying this former runner casual restaurant chain on the breakout above long-term resistance at $8, only resistance left is at $9 then it’s a big time breakout, with recent big winners like CMG/LOCO everyone is looking for the next big restaurant stock, judging by this price action, this could be it, goal is to sell at $9ish and maybe hold if it can breakout past that, already have http://tim.ly/timlong long-term position. Exit comments: Got a nice little morning spike, nothing huge, but it wipes away my LIVE loss so I’m basically breakeven today, still holding small long-term position on PZZI given the strong chart breakout.

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$1,890 profit on AMOT. Long Stock by timothysykes

Entry comments: Buying this earnings winner into the market close, nice gradual uptrend all day, breaking above multi-year support in the low 14s, I’d love to see it retest today’s highs in the low 15s and possibly even test or breakout past highs of 16. Exit comments: No big big morning spike like I wanted, taking decent profits, staying disciplined and getting out, playing it safe, NEXT! Congrats to all overnight longs!

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$1,183 loss on LIVE. Long Stock by timothysykes

Entry comments: Dip buying this earnings winner/former spiker, goal is to sell in the high 4s or low 5s today or tomorrow morning, this can REALLY spike in the morning, as it proved today, so shorts should respect this earnings-based move, hopefully this sketchy company can issues an overnight PR too as they like to do when they’re in short squeeze mode, I’m buying this 75 cents/share off its day highs so not much risk if I’m wrong. Exit comments: No overnight news, no morning spike/gap up so I’m playing it safe…whether or not I have a small gain or loss on trades like this if there is news/spiking it’s such a home run, I’ll do this again and again.

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Then we have InvestorsLive.

$7,427 profit on TKMR. Short Stock by InvestorsLive

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$3,664 profit on EXAS. Short Stock by InvestorsLive

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$3,283 loss on KMI. Short Stock by InvestorsLive

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$11,241 loss on CSIQ. Short Stock by InvestorsLive

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And last but certainly not least, we have SuperMan.

$4,240 profit on LIVE. Long Stock by super_trades

Entry comments: SWING / TRADE – revs up nicely in 10q….. personal stop loss 4 area and personal target 4.75-5 plus if it works. Exit comments: SUPER TRADE !!!! may go higher and will watch but super !!

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$16,349 profit on GGG. Long Stock by super_trades

Entry comments: TICKER is GGG.V this is a Canadian stock new listing …. 3d graphene …..SWING personal stop loss .35-.38 and personal target .75-1 plus if it works. Exit comments: SUPER TRADE !! May go higher will keep on watch.

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$1,650 loss on MGPI. Long Stock by super_trades

Entry comments: CHART – watch list winner kind of late here but personal stop loss 4ema and personal target 10-11 plus if it works. Exit comments: may still work and will keep watch but stalled.

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March 30-April 4

April 7-April 11

April 14-April 18

April 21-April 25

April 28-May 2

May 5-May 9

May 12-May 16

May 19-May 23

May 27-May 30

June 2-June 6

June 9-June 13

June 16-June 20

June 23-June 27

June 30-July 3

July 7-July 11

July 14-July18

August 4-August 8

The 40 Most Important Charts Right Now

Aug 18, 2014   //   by Profitly   //   Market, Profitly  //  Comments Off

Here at Profit.ly, we LOVE charts! There is so much you can learn just from a simple picture. Our guru’s are often predicting a stocks next move based on what they are seeing in certain charts. If you are one of their students, you will know that they often look at charts in their video lessons, webinars, and watch lists. Essentially: CHARTS ARE IMPORTANT! It is hard to even imagine finance and trading without them. That’s why, when I found the following article on Business Insider, I had to share it!

What’s the article, you ask? It’s called “Wall Street’s Brightest Minds Reveal The Most Important Charts In The World.”
Business Insider’s Myles Udland asked dozens of his favorite analysts, economists, strategists, and portfolio managers on Wall Street and around the world to send him their most important charts. The article contains that fascinating composition.
Some themes that arise are continued questions about the housing and credit markets in China, volatility — or the lack thereof — in global markets, and how we can get a sense of what happens when the Fed makes its next move. Here are the charts as well as the person that sent it in: Let us know if you have any that you think we are missing! These guys covered everything from the Fed to Nigeria!

1.Jeff Gundlach, DoubleLine

1

2.Emad Mostaque, strategist

2

3.Aswath Damodaran, Stern School of Business at NYU

3

4.Michael Widmer, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

4

5.Joshua M. Brown and Michael Batnick, Ritholtz Wealth Management

5

6.Jesse Livermore, Philosophical Economics

6

7.Michael McDonough, Bloomberg LP

7

8.Tobias Levkovich, Citi Research

8

9.Gary Shilling, economist

9

10.Jens Nordvig, Nomura

10

11.Tim Quinlan, Wells Fargo

11

12.Megan Greene, Maverick Intelligence

12

13.David Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff

13

14.Jonathan Krinsky, MKM Partners

14

15.Sean Darby, Jefferies

15

16.Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley

16

17.Michelle Meyer, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

17

18.Todd Colvin, R.J. O’Brien

19

19.Lars Christensen, Danske Bank

20

20.Steven Englander, Citigroup

21

21.Saeed Amen, The Thalesians

22

22.Gerard Minack, Minack Advisors

23

23.John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer & Co.

24

24.Zach Pandl, Columbia Management

25

25.Vladimir Miklashevsky, Danske Bank

26

26.Dave Lutz, JonesTrading

27

27.Hedy Mansour, Langdon P. Cook Government Securities

28

28.Uldis Zelmenis, BTA Insurance Co.

29

29.Drew Matus, UBS

30

30.Stuart Culverhouse, Exotix Partners

31

31.Ruslan Bikbov, Merrill Lynch

32

32.George Goncalves, Nomura

33

33.David Woo, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

34

34.Rick Harrell, Loomis, Sayles & Co.

35

35.George Magnus, UBS

36

36.Maury Harris, UBS

37

37.Boris Rjavinski, UBS

38

38.Radoslaw Bodys, PKO BP

39

39.Francisco Blacn, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research

40

40.Nicholas Spiro, Spiro Sovereign Strategy

41

To see the second half of the list, visit Business Insider.

Weekly Roundup August 4-8

Aug 11, 2014   //   by Profitly   //   Profitly, Profitly Weekly  //  Comments Off

Time for our next weekly roundup! Superman in particular had a stellar week! Check out the best trades from our gurus below.

First is InvestorsLive.

$4,670 profit on MBLY.

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$3,749 profit on MBLY.

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$2,222 profit on CZR.

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$1,768 loss on LOCO.

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Then we have Superman.

$16,650 profit on TOUR.

Entry comments: CHART – AS OUTLINED IN SUEPR PRO video got pullback towards 4ema which would be personal stop loss and personal target 23-25 plus before earnings if it works……Exit comments: SUPER TRADE will watch chart for re-entry.

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$5,730 profit on HGSH.

Entry comments: earnings winner bottom of chart SWING / TRADE personal stop low 2′s and personal target 3.3 plus if it works. Exit comments: SUPER TRADE – may go higher but hit target range and perfect 6k trade.

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$21,787 profit on SSYS.

Entry comments: they expire 1 week after earnings …looking for move into earnings. Exit comments: CLOSED REMAINING PUTS AT 9 FROM 3 ENTRY!!!!!$$$$$$ #SUPERTRADE #OHMY.

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$14,588 profit on LIME.

Entry comments: DO NOT CHASE – TRADE – Low float with big contract news after hours…personal stop low 3′s and personal target 4.5-5 plus if it works. Exit comments: SUPER trade !!! may go higher will watch for re-entry or just enjoy profits!!!

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$6,665 profit on SSYS.

Entry comments: SWING – into earnings……personal stop loss low 96′s as 96.5 has bee low last week……goal is to get move into the 100′s pre – earnings and offset options that are down and or add to gain. Exit comments: Super Trade from 96.97 and offset option risk.

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$2,115 loss on BIDU.

Entry comments: CHART 4ema stop personal target 221-223 plus if it works. Exit comments: I was down 20k at one point because of rule breaking on stop loss…..averaged down as was beaten with market and out almost flat…bad example but good result!

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Lastly we have Tim.

$5,291 profit on VGGL.

Entry comments: Fast growing app reporting record new users today, only $45 million marketcap, should continue surging tomorrow, goal is to sell in high 3s or low 4s, remember YOD’s 2 to 7 run in 2 days? And they didn’t even have any user growth! Exit comments: It’s nearly hitting 4 now but I’m not sure if that wall of sellers will break so I take safe 40+ cents/share profits, near best case scenario for me, potential re-buy on any uptrending which could signify a bigger spike, but gotta respect the wall for now.

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$7,283 profit on CBDE.

Entry comments: Bought CBDE on solid dip off the afternoon highs, lots of people expected a big spike into the close and are now panicking, I did video lesson I’ll publish tomorrow saying I expected this, goal is still to sell in the low 4s next week, any article that makes a comparison to SolarCity would help a ton but not sure if anyone will write it, I like buying contract winners just above support (3.50) on big dips, they tend to retest the highs if not breakout the next trading day! Exit comments: NICE solid overnight gap up, traded as high at 4.30 premarket but it was on low volume, this is a solid low risk/hold over the weekend gain, 30-50 cents/share from my buy alert, and while it might spike more, I’m going to focus more on VOIL as it has a greater chance for a big 20-30-40% win today, let’s see if that pump can crack! Congrats to all weekend CBDE longs and VOIL shorts, I was patient, meticulous with my approach and dead on with these both.

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$2,649 profit on JMBA.

Entry comments: Dip bought this earnings winner after big spike to 13.60, could this be this casual restaurant’s Chipotle moment? It’s possible, aiming to make 50 cents/share, will do video lesson. Exit comments: I probly should give this more time, but making $2500 in an hour is too good to pass up on this choppy stock, it’s a confirmed multi-month breakout above 13.20-13.25 so I might re-buy later in the day if it can hold gains all day.

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Lastly, there was a painful loss, but a great learning opportunity for Tim and his students.

$15,636 loss on HGSH.

Entry comments: Buying this low float/former runner earnings winner on a big dip off its day highs, big seller at 3.50 but if he gets taken out this booms to the high 3s or even low 4s, I like my odds of a gap up/morning spike next week too. Exit comments: No bounce, bigger sellers on the ask, still up a ton on the day, I’m heading to Italy next week, VERY important video lesson coming tomorrow on this trade, it’s a MUST WATCH, tough $15k loss for me, but that’s the risk when you go big and are dead wrong.

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Previous Roundups:

March 30-April 4

April 7-April 11

April 14-April 18

April 21-April 25

April 28-May 2

May 5-May 9

May 12-May 16

May 19-May 23

May 27-May 30

June 2-June 6

June 9-June 13

June 16-June 20

June 23-June 27

June 30-July 3

July 7-July 11

July 14-July18

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